$ETH Many comrades don’t understand why it suddenly dropped today. The secretary analyzes it from both the news side and the technical side to help comrades understand—of course, it may not be right; this is just one person’s opinion.

I’ll cover from April 7 to today, April 27—20 candlesticks in total.
Because of the time difference, Eastern US time is 12 hours behind ours, so pay attention to this.

As everyone knows, on the 8th the US and Iran announced a ceasefire. This was a major positive development. Some smart money entered early. The situation became clear, and the market shifted into a bullish structure.
For the 15-day ceasefire agreement, in the first ten days the market pushed up by 400 points and then got rejected at 2462.99 and pulled back.

Over the next two or three days, with the second round of negotiations failing, the US and Iran blockaded the strait, and with the US-Iran sides taking a hard-line stance, the market fell to around 2250—until the final day, when the US announced an extension of the ceasefire.

In the end, aided by positive news, a recovery in sentiment, and other factors, wave two ended at 2422. Negotiations fell into a deadlock, and the market started to panic, without any clear direction.
From April 7 to April 22, it was more driven by the news side.

From April 22 to now, I believe it belongs more to the technical side.
First, expectations for the US-Iran ceasefire were too high. After pushing to a new high of 2462, it couldn’t continue, and some funds had to choose to exit.
Second, a head-and-shoulders top formed, creating a need for a pullback.
Third, it provided cover for funds to exit, while a “sell the longs” move was being set up.

On the 22nd and the 14th, around the 2420 area, it formed a head-and-shoulders top shape together with the 17th.
The pullback stopped at 2280 (the secretary has been calling it a “bull trap” since the 23rd, saying that no matter where the price is, boldly enter shorts).

Because the rise starting point of the left shoulder was at 2180, it’s obvious that there was strong support forcing the price to stop at 2280, and then it quickly rebounded back to 2300, forming a “steel-bottom support” setup. On the 25th and the 26th, pull-up efforts began with large buys of spot, while simultaneously laying out a large number of short contract orders, waiting for a coordinated, concentrated dump.

On the 27th—today—after forming a double top again, there was a concentrated and violent sell-off. Along the way, the “stop the decline, build the base, 2300 is unbreakable,” and other bull-trap illusions kept appearing. During the night, it accelerated and broke through 2300, then 2280, and again returned to around 2250.

Where will it go next—what do you think?