🚨 🚨 🚨 🚨 🚨 🚨 🚨 2,099 $BTC (171,467,450 USD) transferred from unknown wallet to unknown wallet

Bitcoin's bottom range has been supported since the breakout on September 21, then failed again near 87k. Now let's see whether there is some relief... If this can hold, we will once again see some decent conditions. Is this a good rebound/recovery zone...? An accumulation range?? The best buying opportunity??$BT

The Federal Reserve released the minutes of its September 15–16 meeting on October 7, and the document carried a message that the market has spent the days since trying to interpret. The headline is straightforward: all 19 officials supported the quarter-point increase that took the federal funds rate to 3.75%–4.00%, the first hike since 2023. Most participants believed another increase by year-end could be appropriate. Yet the market's reaction since the release suggests that investors are not treating the minutes as a signal that a move is imminent. The distinction between "by year-end" and "at the next meeting" is where the debate now sits. The minutes showed that most participants saw a further hike as potentially appropriate, but they also stressed that decisions would remain data-dependent and gave no indication that the October 27–28 meeting was the intended venue. That ambiguity is reflected in rate futures, where the probability of an October increase has fallen to roughly 17%–25%, depending on the measure, down from around 70% before officials began speaking publicly in late September. The odds of a December move remain substantially higher. The internal debate revealed in the minutes adds another layer. Some participants viewed the current policy rate as not restrictive or only mildly restrictive, a view that would lower the bar for further tightening. A couple raised their estimates of the neutral rate, the level that neither stimulates nor restrains the economy. Inflation risks were described as skewed to the upside, with some participants concerned that after more than five years of above-target inflation, expectations and wage-and-price-setting behavior could begin to shift. On the labor market, most officials assessed that risks had become broadly balanced, and a majority said the labor market had strengthened a bit recently. Bitcoin's response to the minutes was notable for how small it was. The price rose about 0.18% within five minutes of the release, moving from roughly $83,159 to $83,306 on one venue, a gain that was larger than the moves in equities or gold over the same window. That is a modest reaction by any measure, and it came after a decline leading into the release. The muted response suggests that the market had already priced in a hawkish tone and was looking for something more definitive to move direction. The more significant variable now sits on the calendar. The September Consumer Price Index is due for release on October 14, two weeks before the Fed's next decision. Forecasts point to a monthly increase of around 0.4% and an annual rate near 3.4%, but some analysts see upside risk from elevated oil prices and the pass-through into food and transportation costs. The minutes themselves noted that the longer energy prices stay high, the greater the risk of broader price pressures. If the CPI print comes in above expectations, the case for an October hike strengthens. If it confirms that inflation is cooling, the pause narrative gains support. For risk assets, the transmission channel runs through the dollar and Treasury yields. The 10-year yield remains near 5.3%, and the dollar has held firm. When the risk-free rate is that elevated, the opportunity cost of holding assets that do not pay a yield rises, and that pressure has kept Bitcoin range-bound in recent weeks. A softer CPI reading would ease that pressure by reducing the probability of further tightening. A hotter print would do the opposite. The minutes also touched on the Treasury market, with some participants describing it as functioning smoothly while emphasizing the need to prepare for possible stress. That caution reflects the scale of government borrowing needs and the sensitivity of the market to shifts in rate expectations. For now, the Fed's message is that it is watching the data and has not committed to a path. The CPI report on October 14 is the next data point that could change that calculation. This article is not investment advice. Analysis is based on publicly available information and does not guarantee future outcomes. $BTC $GT $ETH #FedSeptemberMinutesLeanHawkish $NAS100 $USDJPY