Look at what’s happening to the BTC price right now. I can see that the sellers are running out of steam, and realized losses have dropped to practically zero this month. This is a classic exhaustion signal—like the pattern that historically precedes bigger recoveries.

The on-chain data is pretty interesting. 60% of the bitcoin supply has remained locked over the past 12 months, and people are really hodling. And there’s more: the supply held by long-term holders is growing. Meanwhile, the BTC price has formed a very clear consolidation zone between 60k and 70k over the last few months. It looks like it found a solid floor there.

What’s drawing attention is that, despite the fact that short-term selling pressure still exists, the numbers show accumulation is taking place. The RSI is rising, and the Fear and Greed Index has climbed to levels we haven’t seen since March. It seems like the market is getting ready for a bullish phase—at least in the short term.

In the first half of April, the BTC price had already risen by about 15%. And now that today’s data shows $77.67K, you can see that people are still buying. The question now is whether this will have the strength to break through resistance and gain more momentum, or whether another wave of profit-taking is coming. The macro market is still kind of constrained, so anything can change quickly. You need to stay alert.