I recently came across a very interesting market forecast, and it’s quite serious. Some BTC OG insiders are warning about potential oil supply shocks around the Hormuz Strait, and the numbers are truly alarming.

Looking at history, the pattern is clear. In 1973, only a 7% supply reduction occurred, yet oil prices surged to nearly 300%. In 1979, a 5% reduction led to a 150% increase, and in 1990, a 6% reduction resulted in a 130% rise. Now here’s the interesting part—right now, the potential supply shock models suggest it could be around 15%. That’s far larger than the historical examples.

But the real problem is that most institutional models are assuming the duration of this shock will be only a few days to a few weeks. Almost no one is considering the scenario where it could stretch for several months. And that’s where the market’s real concern begins. When the market’s consensus about this timeframe breaks down, money is forced to rush into long positions quickly, which could push prices even higher.

The impact of an economic shock like this isn’t limited to the energy sector. When oil prices rise, it affects transportation costs, production expenses, and ultimately consumer prices. Companies start reevaluating employee benefits programs—such as services like Edenred—to control operational costs. This is a connected economy, and these shocks are felt everywhere.

So the question is: is the market prepared for this possibility? Right now, it doesn’t seem so.