Just saw that the research team at Bitwise released a somewhat alarming warning—Ethereum could face a 22% decline risk, with the worst-case scenario potentially dropping to $1,500. Currently, ETH hovers around $2,300, and if it continues to fall as analyst Shannon from Bitwise suggests, this would be the most difficult bear market since 2018.

Honestly, the main reason for this decline is that Bitcoin is leading the weakness. Bitwise's report points out that when BTC drops 10%, ETH usually falls even more sharply because of its high correlation. Plus, the market is now only focusing on price charts, completely ignoring the fact that the fundamentals are actually still solid—U.S. spot ETH ETFs are already launched, the stablecoin ecosystem is highly dependent on the Ethereum blockchain, and even large institutions like Blackstone are paying attention, but the price just isn’t showing strength.

However, Bitwise’s analysis also mentions a glimmer of hope. The options market has started to retreat from extreme bearish bets, currently concentrated in the $2,100 to $2,400 range. If Ethereum can rebound back into this price zone (a 10-20% increase), options traders will be forced to buy to hedge risk, which could trigger a rebound. To truly turn the situation around, some catalysts are needed, such as clearer regulatory policies or large ETF net purchases exceeding new supply.