I’m following a very interesting analysis that was released about the possible correlation between a Bitcoin collapse and a recession in the US. Mike McGlone, a Bloomberg specialist, has been signaling that cryptocurrency markets are showing signs of economic weakness that are far deeper than many people imagine.

The scenario he paints is concerning. The valuations of US stocks are at extremes not seen in almost a century, the volatility of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 is abnormally low, and the crypto bubble appears to be deflating. Taken together, all of this points to something bigger happening in the markets. McGlone suggests that the strategy of buying dips is reaching its limit—especially when you look at broader macroeconomic indicators.

He made an interesting comparison between Bitcoin and the S&P 500. If US stocks fall to 5,600, his framework would imply a drop in Bitcoin to $56,000 in a short-term scenario. In the long term, he keeps his base-case scenario of $10,000 for BTC. Now, the price is oscillating around 77,800, so there’s plenty of room to the downside.

Another point I found relevant: Holger Zschaepitz noted that Bitcoin is being traded alongside software stocks, which are under pressure from AI-driven disruptors. Developers and tech investors who have Bitcoin in their portfolios may be liquidating positions to raise cash during periods of sector stress. This explains why Bitcoin’s price remains under constant pressure even when you would expect stronger recoveries.

10x Research warned about something critical: liquidity is quietly leaving the cryptocurrency market. Total market capitalization is at 2.35 trillion, but weekly trading volume has fallen to 100 billion, 49% below the average. Bitcoin had 43.3 billion in volume (47% below normal ) and ethereum 21.4 billion (58% below ). This is a red flag.

What stands out most is the disconnect between macroeconomic conditions—seemingly improving—and the muted price response of cryptocurrencies. When liquidity dries up like this and volatility becomes extreme, you become vulnerable to sudden moves. Some analysts are starting to consider recession-proof assets, such as recession-proof ETFs, as a way to protect yourself in scenarios like these. The truth is that during liquidity contractions, even assets that are normally resilient can suffer.

The point McGlone makes very clear is that a Bitcoin collapse could be the trigger—not the cause—of a broader American recession. If you look at the whole picture together—extreme valuations, abnormally low volatility, a deflating crypto bubble, liquidity drying up—it seems we are at a critical inflection point in the markets. It’s not just about Bitcoin or crypto; it’s about what’s happening in the equity markets as a whole. It’s worth paying attention to these signals.