On my commute, I checked the pool data for blockchain games, and it reminded me of an old problem: once production runs ahead of demand, inflation is like opening the floodgates. The first people to get swept away are the “layer of people who are willing to take the other side.” To put it plainly, it’s not that everyone doesn’t want to play—it's that they realize the daily new tokens outnumber new players and new consumption by far too much, so the rewards can only be cashed out through stronger sell pressure… The pool looks deep, but the boundary is actually paper-thin.

Recently, public opinion keeps tying ETF fund flows, U.S. stock market risk appetite, and swings in the crypto market together to explain everything. It sounds lively, but when it comes to small ecosystems like blockchain games, what I care about most is this: whether the output you provide ultimately has a natural place to go. If it doesn’t, then even if macro sentiment is doing well, it just delays the drop a little. Either way, when I look at projects now, I first focus on the consumption side and the lock-up mechanisms—otherwise, even the prettiest-looking curve won’t last long.