Market Strategy Tips (Friday evening, April 24 — since April 27)

Market Analysis
From Friday evening to now, the market is in a stage of extreme bullish and bearish battles driven by the U.S. Q1 GDP and core PCE inflation both exceeding expectations, a significant cooling of Fed rate cut expectations, ongoing escalation of Middle East geopolitical conflicts, and the dual strength rally of the dollar and U.S. Treasuries. Gold sharply declined after the Friday evening data release, dropping toward the $4,600 level, then rebounded strongly on geopolitical safe-haven demand, fluctuating broadly between $4,650 and $4,750, showing a tug-of-war pattern of “macro hawkish suppression + geopolitical safe-haven support.” Crude oil continued to rise driven by intensified Strait of Hormuz blockade, with Brent crude stabilizing above $110 per barrel, hitting a nearly two-month high. The crypto market also initially declined then surged, with Bitcoin stabilizing above $76,000 and rising to over $78,000, hitting a nearly two-month high. Mainstream cryptocurrencies all followed the rally, showing continued institutional capital inflows and short covering-driven strength.

Macro News
1. Core macro theme: U.S. economy and inflation data both exceeding expectations, Fed rate cut expectations frozen, Middle East tensions heating up, raising stagflation risks

Key U.S. data exceeded expectations across the board, shattering short-term rate cut hopes. On the evening of Friday, April 25, Beijing time, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced Q1 real GDP preliminary data, with a quarter-over-quarter annualized growth of 2.8%, far exceeding the 2.0% market expectation, with the previous figure revised up to 2.5%. Simultaneously, the Q1 core PCE price index preliminary YoY increase was 3.7%, with a 0.4% MoM rise, both surpassing market forecasts and reaching the highest growth rate since Q3 2024. The March core PCE YoY was 2.8%, also above expectations, indicating inflation stickiness far exceeding market pricing.

Fed policy expectations have fully shifted to hawkish, with long-term high interest rate pricing becoming entrenched. After the data release, CME FedWatch shows the probability of the Fed holding rates steady in June rising to 100%, while the chance of a rate cut in September sharply fell from 57.8% to 22%. The market’s full-year rate cut expectation has been revised from 1 cut to 0-1 cuts, with a 58% chance of no cuts. Over the weekend, several Fed officials continued to signal hawkish stance, with voting member Barkin stating “inflation progress has stalled, no need to rush to cut rates,” and Governor Waller warning “if inflation remains above expectations, a rate hike restart cannot be ruled out.”

The dollar and U.S. Treasuries surged violently, pressuring global assets. The dollar index rose over 0.8% intraday after the Friday evening data, reaching a high of 100.2, a four-month high, and currently stabilizing above 100.0 in Asian trading. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased over 12 basis points to a high of 4.52%, a six-month high, exerting broad pressure on non-yield assets.

Middle East geopolitical conflicts continue to escalate, reigniting concerns of stagflation. Over the weekend, maritime clashes occurred in the Persian Gulf between the U.S. and Iran, with the U.S. shooting down three armed Iranian drones. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard announced a no-sail zone in the Strait of Hormuz, seizing 12 foreign oil tankers, with shipping volume less than 10% of normal levels, sharply increasing spillover risks. As a result, international oil prices surged, with Brent futures peaking at $112.8 per barrel over the weekend, currently at $111.5, up over 4.5%. WTI futures reached $105.2 per barrel, a near two-month high.

Global risk assets declined across the board: U.S. stock indices fell sharply on Friday evening—Dow down 1.24%, Nasdaq down 1.89%, S&P 500 down 1.56%; major European indices also closed lower, with the STOXX 600 down 1.32%, reflecting a broad risk-off sentiment.

2. Gold: Sharp decline after data release, then rebound, broad oscillation, macro suppression and geopolitical safe-haven tug-of-war

Price movement: International spot gold opened Friday evening at $4,728. Data release caused a rapid plunge driven by the surge in the dollar and U.S. Treasuries, with a low of $4,602.37, a decline of over 2.6% intraday. Over the weekend, driven by escalating Middle East conflicts, safe-haven buying surged, pushing gold prices strongly higher, with a current Asian session high of $4,735, and latest at $4,712, recovering most of Friday’s losses. COMEX gold futures also initially declined then rose, with a low of $4,610 and latest at $4,725, up over 1.2% intraday. In China, Shanghai Gold continuous contract closed Friday down 1.21% at ¥1028.6 per gram, rebounded 0.87% in Asian trading on Monday to ¥1037.5. Gold T+D was at ¥1035.2 per gram, with mainstream retail prices maintained between ¥1445-1455 per gram.

Core Drivers
Bearish pressure: U.S. economic and inflation data exceeding expectations, Fed rate hike expectations sharply cooling, dollar stabilizing above 100, and Treasury yields hitting six-month highs, all exerting core suppression on gold; global gold ETFs saw net outflows of over 3.2 tons on Friday, with institutional long positions continuously reducing, significantly diminishing chasing behavior.

Bullish support: Escalating Middle East conflicts triggering safe-haven demand, combined with the long-term logic of central bank gold purchases remaining intact, with strong physical demand support below $4,600. The World Gold Council’s weekend report shows Q1 global central bank net gold purchases increased 28% YoY, a record high for the same period.

Key ranges: Core support at $4,650–$4,680 (intraday oscillation center), strong support at $4,600–$4,620 (Friday low); core resistance at $4,730–$4,750, strong resistance at $4,800 round number.

3. Crypto Market: Initial decline then surge, Bitcoin surpasses $78,000 to hit new phase high, institutional inflows + short squeeze driving rally

Price movement: Bitcoin opened Friday evening at $75,200, hit a low of $73,150 amid U.S. stocks’ sharp decline and dollar strength; over the weekend, driven by continuous institutional inflows and halving expectations, it rebounded strongly, breaking through $76,000, $77,000, and $78,000 levels, peaking at $78,420, a nearly two-month high. Currently in Asian trading at $78,150, up over 3.9%. Ethereum also surged, reaching a high of $2,480, now at $2,455, up over 6.2%. Mainstream coins like SOL and DOGE also followed, generally up over 5% intraday, with total crypto market cap expanding by over $120 billion in one day.

Funds and on-chain data: U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF saw net inflows of over $420 million on Friday, six consecutive days of net inflows, totaling over $3 billion this week. BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC combined net inflows exceeded $350 million, while Grayscale’s GBTC experienced three days of zero net outflows, indicating institutional capital returning. The futures market experienced a short squeeze, with over 128k liquidations in the past 24 hours, totaling $387 million, with short liquidations accounting for over 76%, including $182 million in Bitcoin shorts. Short covering was a key driver of this rally. On-chain data shows exchange-held BTC net outflows of over 21k coins over the weekend, with whale addresses actively accumulating, and long-term holders maintaining a 69% holding ratio, indicating high underlying stability. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index rose to 58, entering a neutral-optimistic zone.

Key ranges: Core support at $76,000–$77,000 (intraday oscillation center), strong support at $74,000–$75,000 (Friday low); core resistance at $78,000–$78,500 (intraday high), strong resistance at $80,000 round number.

Special Reminders
Gold is currently in a broad oscillation correction cycle after data release. The core macro suppression from the Fed’s prolonged high interest rates remains unresolved. Resistance above $4,750 is significant, compounded by extreme uncertainty in Middle East geopolitics, sharply increasing high-level volatility risks. Do not blindly chase highs or countertrend bottom-fish. The $4,730 level has become a short-term strong resistance zone. Be cautious of secondary declines after geopolitical tensions ease. Use light positions, and only consider small long positions if the price stabilizes above $4,650–$4,680. Strictly set stop-loss at $4,600. Consider taking profits on rallies above $4,730, and strictly control position sizes to avoid extreme volatility from geopolitical and policy uncertainties.

The current strong rally in crypto has broken previous major resistance levels, with a sustained medium-term upward trend reinforced. However, market sentiment has turned optimistic, and after large short-term gains, a technical correction is likely. The risk of chasing high above $78,000 significantly increases. Do not hold heavy positions in chasing or high-leverage trades. Keep positions within 40%. Only consider incremental buying after the price stabilizes above $76,000–$77,000 support. If the price drops below $76,000 again, be alert to deep short-term corrections, reduce positions promptly, lock in profits, and avoid high-level retracements.