#特朗普称伊朗战事接近尾声 Trump: The war has basically ended! The conclusion of the Iran conflict will be decided by Iran.

1. Background (March 9)

Trump states that the Iran war has largely ended, sooner than expected.

- Market reaction: US stocks rebound, crude oil plunges nearly 9%, risk aversion eases.
- Iran's response: The end of the war will be decided by Iran, with ongoing risks of fluctuations.

2. Direct impact on the crypto market (short-term)

- Risk appetite recovery: Safe-haven funds flow out of gold and oil, some reallocate to risk assets (cryptocurrencies).
- Liquidity expectations improve: War cooling down → inflation pressures ease → Fed rate cut expectations rise, benefiting the crypto market.
- BTC/ETH short-term bias: Trump’s pro-crypto stance + war easing, short-term rebound likely, but volatility remains high.
- Beware of fluctuations: Iran’s tough stance, Strait of Hormuz risks persist, sudden negative news can trigger rapid drops.

3. Future trend forecast (mid to late March)

1. Short-term (1–3 days)

- Mainly oscillation and rebound: BTC likely tests 88,000–92,000 range, ETH tests 23,000–25,000.
- Key observations: Whether crude oil stabilizes, US stocks continue to rebound, any new moves from Iran.

2. Medium-term (1–2 weeks)

- Range-bound oscillation: BTC likely fluctuates between 82,000–95,000, difficult to break previous highs.
- Drivers:
- Positive factors: War easing, rate cut expectations, Trump’s crypto policies.
- Negative factors: Iran’s retaliation, inflation exceeding expectations, tightening regulations, profit-taking.

3. Long-term (1–3 months)

- Trend depends on two core factors:
- Fed rate cut pace: The sooner the rate cuts, the easier for the crypto market to enter a bull phase.
- Whether Middle East tensions fully subside: Continued turmoil will keep some of crypto’s “digital gold” attributes priced in.
- Neutral scenario: Oscillation and bottoming out, waiting for rate cut signals, unlikely to see a major trend.

4. Trading suggestions (for reference only, not investment advice)

- Short-term: Light positions, try long positions with strict stop-loss (below 80,000 for BTC), quick in and out.
- Medium-term: Mainly observe, wait for clearer situation and confirmed rate cut signals.
- Risk control: Manage positions, avoid chasing highs, beware of flash crashes caused by geopolitical fluctuations.