Commodities (Crude Oil & Copper) & Macro Outlook

Fueled by the U.S.-Iran geopolitical conflict, Western banks have accelerated their exit from large-scale commodity trade finance due to compliance and sanctions risks, prompting traders to shift to stablecoins for cross-border settlement. Stablecoins have become an alternative settlement tool; their usage is rising, with market value exceeding $300 billion and on-chain transaction volume reaching $4 trillion.

Gate News message, A whale identified as "0x9e8" closed the majority of its $SILVER long position with 20x leverage and opened a 95,577 $CL long position with 20x leverage valued at $9 million over the past 5 hours. This trading activity occurred as the U.S.-Iran negotiations did not reach success.

Bank of America releases a report, adjusting its global economic outlook due to geopolitical shocks in the Middle East. The U.S. growth forecast for 2026 is lowered to 2.3%, and inflation is raised to 3.1%. The eurozone growth forecast is cut, with inflation raised to 3.3%. The report emphasizes that the impact of the shocks is uneven.

U.S. President Trump reposted a report on April 12, saying he may take a maritime blockade strategy against Iran to apply pressure, which drew attention after negotiations broke down. Similar to the approach that previously succeeded in Venezuela, Trump intends to influence Iran’s oil exports by controlling the Strait of Hormuz, while two U.S. aircraft carrier strike groups have already been deployed. This move could reignite volatility in crude oil prices and geopolitical risks.

The breakdown of the nuclear talks between Iran and the U.S. caused Bitcoin to surge and then pull back, with the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and macroeconomic data becoming the focus. This article will explain the logic behind volatility in the crypto market amid geopolitical conflict and the movement of on-chain capital.

The U.S. vice president, Vance, did not reach an agreement in the US-Iran negotiations held in Islamabad. The core dispute is that Iran refused the U.S. demand for a nuclear weapons commitment. The breakdown of the talks has increased geopolitical risk, affecting financial markets—especially crude oil and Bitcoin prices. Even though the negotiations were unsuccessful, both sides may still continue discussions, and the market will watch for further developments.

Gate News message. On April 12, according to on-chain data monitoring, Sky (formerly MakerDAO) co-founder Rune’s 7x leveraged Nasdaq 100 short positions have all been closed. He currently still holds 20x leveraged WTI crude oil futures long positions, 7x leveraged Brent crude oil long positions, and 20x leveraged S&P 500 short positions, and all of them are in a loss position. His overall position value has now fallen to about $680k, with an unrealized loss of about $60k, and the return on investment is -21.78%.

Iran-U.S. third round of talks in Pakistan has ended. Iran says this is the “last chance” to reach a framework agreement. There are significant differences between the two sides on core issues such as the Strait of Hormuz and the nuclear issue, and no substantive progress has been made. The negotiations are still ongoing; the situation is complex, and both military actions and diplomatic games are escalating in parallel.

An Iran-U.S. peace negotiation is about to begin. The Iranian delegation consists of 71 people and is led by Speaker Kalibaf; the U.S. side has a 300-person delegation, mainly security and guard personnel. The two sides’ lineup differences are significant, and the negotiations will touch on sensitive issues such as economic sanctions and nuclear facilities.

CNN reported that a security source in Iran said the Strait of Hormuz will continue to be blocked before Iran and the United States reach a negotiated joint framework, because the U.S. side has put forward excessive demands. Iran emphasized that it is not in a hurry to take action; things will remain as they are, and the number of ship passages also cannot be realized.

According to data from a research institution, crypto perpetual contracts that are anchored to traditional assets are gradually becoming a tool for “pre-pricing Wall Street,” with their weekend price movements predicting the accuracy of Monday’s traditional market by as much as 89%. Trading volume and weekend activity for these contracts have increased significantly, and they have become an important reference for gauging the short-term direction of traditional markets.

In a statement on April 11, Trump said that Iran’s military power was severely dealt a blow, with its navy, air force, and air defense systems nearly destroyed, leaving only naval mines as a threat. The United States is clearing the Strait of Hormuz and is also assisting multiple countries in transporting oil.

The United States and Iran held historic direct talks on April 11 in Islamabad, Pakistan, marking the first high-level diplomatic contact since the 1979 Iranian Revolution. The aim is to stabilize the ceasefire and seek a war-resolution solution. Both delegations are large in size, and Pakistan is serving as the intermediary. The negotiations are set against the backdrop of recent military clashes and their impact on global financial markets, and the market will closely watch developments.

Gate News update, April 11, Trump posted on his Truth platform saying that a large number of empty tankers—some of the largest in the world—are currently en route to the United States, loaded with the world’s highest-quality, most “sweet” oil and natural gas. Trump emphasized that the United States’ oil reserves exceed the combined totals of the second- and third-largest oil-producing countries, and that the quality is higher. In the post, he wrote: “We look forward to your visit. Don’t waste time!”

A U.S. bank research report said that since the 1970s, the global economy’s reliance on oil has declined, and the oil required now is only one-third of that at the time, with economic resilience strengthening. In addition, Haitong Securities’ analysis found that gold did not exhibit safe-haven characteristics; after experiencing a pullback due to geopolitical shocks, it rebounded.

Gate News message. On April 11, the U.S. Department of Energy announced that it will lend 8.5 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to four companies. Companies that will borrow crude oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve include Macquarie and Phillips 66.

Gate News message, April 11, according to Reuters, a senior U.S. White House official said that skepticism is pervasive inside the White House. The official said that during recent conversations with his advisers, Trump seems to have acknowledged that the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to fully reopen in the short term. However, at the same time, on Thursday Trump posted on social media that oil supplies will be restored soon, but provided no further details.

Reports say that Iran plans, during a U.S.-Iran ceasefire period, to require tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz to pay a toll of $1 per barrel in Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. The cost for a single trip could reach $2 million. A fully loaded tanker must declare its cargo and make payment with cryptocurrency, while also ensuring the transaction is not tracked. The move is intended to evade the risk of sanctions from the traditional financial system.

Gate News update: On April 10, according to market sources, on April 11, U.S. Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren sent a letter to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), requesting an investigation into oil trades related to remarks made by U.S. President Donald Trump about Iran.

Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister, Habibzadeh, said that although the Strait of Hormuz remains open, due to technical restrictions imposed in the war zone environment, all vessels must coordinate with Iran’s military to ensure safety. U.S. ships may transit, but must not engage in hostile activities and must comply with relevant regulations.