Commodities (Crude Oil & Copper) & Macro Outlook

Vale reported strong first-quarter results, with iron ore production rising to 69.7 million tonnes and sales increasing by 4%. Copper production also grew by 13%, while nickel reached a five-year high. Financial statements will be released on April 28.

The LME index soared due to geopolitical tensions causing aluminum supply disruptions and rising copper prices. Since February, aluminum prices surged 15%, with significant production halts in the Middle East. JPMorgan reports a severe supply deficit, predicting prolonged market challenges and further price increases.

South Korea's Ministry of Foreign Affairs reported that Park Jong-han visited Algeria and Libya to discuss emergency oil supply and energy cooperation. He confirmed potential purchases of Libyan heavy crude oil and sought trading quotas from the National Oil Corporation, which expressed willingness to assist pending technical conditions.

Vale's first-quarter 2026 report shows iron ore production at 69.7 million tonnes (up 3%), sales at 68.7 million tonnes (up 4%), copper production at 102,300 tonnes (up 13%), and nickel production at 49,300 tonnes (up 12%).

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced the acquisition of 570,000 barrels of diesel from Brunei and South Korea during his visit to Malaysia. This marks the first strategic material secured under new procurement powers aimed at strengthening energy cooperation in Southeast Asia.

U.S. stock indices closed higher on April 16, with the S&P 500 reaching a record. Tech stocks surged, particularly within the semiconductor sector and Chinese companies. Crude oil prices rose, while precious metals declined. Analysts offer mixed views on the rally's sustainability amidst geopolitical tensions involving Israel and Lebanon.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda highlighted the conflict in the Middle East as a source of inflation and economic slowdown risks. He confirmed that the Monetary Policy Committee will determine suitable measures to reach the 2% inflation target at the upcoming meeting.

In a House hearing, U.S. CFTC Chairman Selig emphasized a “zero-tolerance policy” toward market fraud and manipulation. He responded to questions regarding a $500 million oil futures transaction and said the CFTC is drafting rules to regulate prediction markets. Selig also mentioned a cooperation memorandum of understanding with the SEC to strengthen oversight of digital assets. Given that the CFTC currently has only one commissioner—himself—Selig emphasized operational efficiency and will hire new staff to enhance regulatory capacity.

The IEA's Fatih Birol warned that restoring oil and gas production disrupted by the Iran conflict may take up to two years. The Strait of Hormuz's closure has significantly impacted oil supplies, with emerging economies facing the toughest challenges. Demand is already contracting.

In March, Singapore's non-oil domestic exports surged 15.3% year-on-year, driven by a 74% increase in electronic exports, particularly semiconductors. Non-electronic exports declined, but overall growth continues as the country updates its 2026 export forecast.

Gate News: According to the latest Gate TradFi data, XBRUSD (Brent Crude UKOIL) has surged by 2% in a short period. Current volatility is significantly higher than recent averages, indicating increased market

Alcoa Corporation reported a first-quarter revenue of $3.19 billion, down 5.3% year-over-year, missing expectations. Alumina production declined 5%, while aluminum output remained flat. The company maintained its 2026 guidance but anticipates Q2 EBITDA headwinds due to increased costs.

Lufthansa will ground 27 regional aircraft and end CityLine operations by year's end to cut losses amid rising fuel costs and labor strikes, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions affecting aviation in Europe.

Repsol has reestablished control over its Venezuelan oil assets following a deal with the government, planning to boost production by 50% in the next year despite previous U.S. sanctions that had limited its operations.

Fatih Birol of the International Energy Agency warned that Europe's aviation fuel reserves could last only six weeks due to Middle Eastern turmoil affecting oil supplies, risking flight cancellations and impacting global economic growth, especially in developing nations.

Congo has established a strategic reserve for cobalt and critical minerals, mandating that 10% of cobalt exports be set aside for state purposes. This move allows the government to better manage the global cobalt market and complements existing export quotas.

Eddie Yue from the Hong Kong Monetary Authority states that Hong Kong's banking sector faces limited risk from Middle East tensions, though rising oil prices may impact energy-sensitive sectors. There's no increase in SME assistance requests, and the authority continues to monitor the situation. The anticipated 19.3% default rate for a special loan scheme is being managed through standard collection procedures.

The Trump administration will not renew sanctions waivers for Iranian and Russian oil, prompting threats of secondary sanctions against countries, particularly China, buying Iranian oil. This decision ends efforts to stabilize global oil prices amidst ongoing Middle East tensions.

Austan Goolsbee warns that high oil prices from the Iran war may prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates until 2027, prolonging inflation above the 2% target and leading to a "higher for longer" interest rate scenario.

TotalEnergies anticipates strong first-quarter results driven by rising energy prices and increased production outside the Middle East, despite Iran conflict impacts. The company expects growth in oil and gas output and trading, against potential supply disruptions.