Commodities (Crude Oil & Copper) & Macro Outlook

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned in his annual shareholder letter that a war with Iran could trigger persistent oil and commodity price shocks, creating inflation pressure that is stickier than the market expects, and that the Federal Reserve may need to maintain high interest rates for longer. He noted that the war’s economic impact is widespread, including a global restructuring of supply chains and rising energy prices. In addition, Dimon still holds a positive view of the U.S. economy, but warned that the economic shocks from the war could weaken that resilience.

Gate News message, a trader with address 0x18b0 incurred significant losses through two consecutive trading decisions. The trader sold 499.9 ETH for $1.1M at $2,197 before ETH price increased, resulting in a loss of $82.5K. Subsequently, the trader opened a long position on oil immediately before it

Saudi Arabia is pressuring the United States to lift the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and resume negotiations to prevent possible Iranian retaliation over President Trump’s sanctions, which could affect its oil exports. Saudi Arabia’s daily exports of 7 million barrels are crucial to the Strait of Mandeb, and the situation remains uncertain.

The founder of Muddy Waters, Carson Block, after trying the AI tool Claude, shifted his view of the economic outlook from optimistic to pessimistic. He warned that AI replacing knowledge work will trigger a severe economic crisis, and has already started shorting ETFs in the credit market. He noted that 15% of knowledge work is about to disappear, and predicted it will lead to a contraction in consumption and a systemic crash. His move to restart the short-selling setup has drawn attention in the current market.

Gate News: According to the latest Gate TradFi data, XTIUSD (WTI Crude USOIL) has surged by 2% in a short period. Current volatility is significantly higher than recent averages, indicating increased market

Trump said in his statement that the Strait of Hormuz blockade has begun, and that other countries will assist the U.S. He warned Iran that if it does not reach an agreement within two weeks, it will face an unfavorable situation, and he emphasized that the United States will maintain the status quo. The United States is preparing to take measures to respond to Iran.

U.S. President Trump announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and will have it take effect on April 12; oil prices promptly surged. The U.S. military will intercept ships bound for Iran, but it will not affect shipping from other Persian Gulf countries. This move intensifies the global energy crisis, with oil prices breaking above $100, which could affect inflation and central bank policy. The market is also watching how geopolitical risk could impact risk assets.

U.S. President Trump threatens to impose an additional 50% tariff on China, claiming China is preparing to deliver air defense systems to Iran. This has heightened tensions between the U.S. and China. Trump’s threat is largely political pressure, and implementation would require legal procedures. China denies providing military aid and calls for restraint. The incident shakes the market, drives up oil prices, and affects the outlook for cryptocurrency.

On April 13, gold and silver prices fell to $4,732.92 per ounce and $74.209 per ounce, respectively. The BTC volatility index rose by 0.42%, and the ETH volatility index rose by 0.31%. The U.S. dollar versus the Chinese yuan and the Japanese yen edged up slightly, major European stock indexes generally fell, while WTI and Brent crude oil prices rose. The Gate platform supports trading for multiple asset types.

The peace talks between Iran and the United States have broken down. The U.S. has blockaded the Strait of Hormuz and is considering airstrikes, causing international oil prices to break above $100. Bitcoin has fallen below $71,000. Experts warn that the world is facing a severe crude-oil supply shock, and stored oil is about to run out.

Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone says that after a big surge in 2025, Bitcoin could face a sharp pullback, while similar risks exist for silver, gold, copper, natural gas, and crude oil—especially if crude oil prices spike, which could trigger even larger market ripple effects.

The U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz caused oil prices to surge sharply, but global stock markets responded relatively calmly. The VIX index suggests that market panic sentiment has eased, and investors have started to factor geopolitical risks into their considerations. Analysts believe that the worst period of panic may already be over and expect oil prices to fall back.

Gate News message: On April 13, the spokesperson for the Khatam al-Anbia Central Headquarters of Iran’s armed forces said that in the face of U.S. threats, Iran will decisively implement a “permanent mechanism to control the Strait of Hormuz.” The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, and it is a major global oil shipping route.

The U.S. Navy began blockading the Strait of Hormuz starting April 13, U.S. Eastern Time, with all passage halted. Crude oil prices jumped nearly 10% in a single day, while Bitcoin fell 1.2% over the past 24 hours.

SigmaIntell predicts that global DRAM prices will continue to rise in 2026 Q2, but the rate of increase will slow significantly to 30% to 50%. Driven by strong AI demand and weakening consumer electronics demand, the DRAM market is being restructured, and the supply-demand shortfall is widening. Although AI server demand is forecast to grow year over year by as much as 105%, demand for traditional consumer products is falling, so the overall supply-demand balance will shift from a surplus in 2025 to a shortage in 2026.

U.S. Central Command confirms that, starting April 13, it will impose a maritime blockade on Iranian ports, while international shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is not affected. WTI crude oil prices break above $105, and Bitcoin falls back to around $71,000, with global energy and crypto asset markets responding in sync.

A single address on the Hyperliquid platform held a $73.05 million crude oil short position in a day; its floating profit of $5.89M turned into a floating loss of $2.10 million. Of this, the CL and BRENTOIL short positions were down $1.4M and $620k respectively. The address became the largest leveraged position in BRENTOIL.

Trump said that because of Iran’s actions in the Strait of Hormuz, the United States will impose blockade measures, and the world’s reliance on American oil will deepen. He emphasized that U.S. oil reserves have increased significantly, and ships no longer need to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

On April 13, the precious metals market was under pressure, with gold and silver prices falling by 0.86% and 1.70%, respectively. The crypto market volatility index rose, the U.S. dollar against the Chinese yuan and the yen edged up, crude oil prices surged significantly, with WTI up 8.99%. The Gate platform supports trading a variety of traditional financial products.

Iranian Parliament Speaker Qalibaf warned that the U.S. oil price would rise due to blockade measures, hinting at retaliation against the United States. At the same time, tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are escalating, and market forecasts suggest that oil prices could break above $115 per barrel. The U.S. and Britain differ on their stance toward the blockade of Hormuz, and there are also differences in statements between Trump and the Central Command, affecting the likely future direction of oil prices.