Macroeconomics

U.S. President Trump blockaded the Strait of Hormuz because Iran refused to give up its nuclear weapons program, causing crude oil futures prices on the decentralized platform Hyperliquid to surge by 7%. The market saw intense fluctuations due to concerns about a supply disruption, making it an important venue for price discovery. Strategic petroleum reserves are about to run out, supply risks in the oil market are intensifying, and this could trigger even more severe inflation pressure.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost noted that although March CPI recorded the largest month-over-month increase, core CPI remained stable, indicating that U.S. inflation has not fully spread yet. Attention should be paid to upcoming PCE data. If the Iran-Iraq conflict continues, inflation could evolve into a systemic risk and affect economic growth, and the Federal Reserve may need to continue raising rates to respond.

The Bitcoin halving in April 2024 lowered its annual inflation rate to 0.85%, for the first time below gold’s 1.5–2%. Bitcoin’s scarcity comes from code rules: supply will gradually decrease, and another halving is expected again in 2028. This halving cycle witnessed increased participation from institutional investors, strengthening Bitcoin’s position as digital gold.

Bank of America releases a report, adjusting its global economic outlook due to geopolitical shocks in the Middle East. The U.S. growth forecast for 2026 is lowered to 2.3%, and inflation is raised to 3.1%. The eurozone growth forecast is cut, with inflation raised to 3.3%. The report emphasizes that the impact of the shocks is uneven.

The breakdown of the nuclear talks between Iran and the U.S. caused Bitcoin to surge and then pull back, with the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and macroeconomic data becoming the focus. This article will explain the logic behind volatility in the crypto market amid geopolitical conflict and the movement of on-chain capital.

Bitcoin’s weekly gain this week reached nearly 7%, marking the strongest single-week performance since October 2025, as the U.S. core CPI data came in below expectations and a ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel boosted market sentiment. The price briefly broke through $73,000. Market expectations have intensified that the Federal Reserve may start cutting rates sooner, and technical indicators show volatility compression, suggesting that significant price swings may be ahead. In the short term, attention should be paid to the ceasefire negotiations and the Federal Reserve’s policy direction.

Gate News message. On April 11, the U.S. Department of Energy announced that it will lend 8.5 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to four companies. Companies that will borrow crude oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve include Macquarie and Phillips 66.

Gate News message: On April 10, the United States’ initial forecast for the 1-year inflation rate was 4.8% for April, higher than the market expectation of 4.3%, with the prior value at 3.80%. This data is an important component of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index and reflects consumers’ expectations for inflation levels over the next year.

Gate News message, April 10, after the CPI data was released, the latest price of WTI U.S. crude oil (U.S. West Texas Intermediate) was $97.57 per barrel, and Brent crude oil (the international benchmark) was latest at $95.46 per barrel. The U.S. Dollar Index DXY (an indicator that measures the strength of the U.S. dollar against a basket of currencies) fell 10 points in the short term, with the latest reading at 98.68.

Gate News message: On April 10, the U.S. dollar spot index has fallen cumulatively by about 1.4% this week, marking the largest weekly drop since January. After the CPI data was released, market trading strategies focused on buying the U.S. dollar and oil. The foreign exchange market has now entered a news-headline-driven trading phase, and progress in the Iran-U.S. negotiations amid a fragile ceasefire is becoming the new focal point.

Gate News message: On April 10, the U.S. March unadjusted CPI year-over-year rate recorded 3.3%, with gasoline prices accounting for nearly three-quarters of the CPI increase.

Gate News, according to Tree News, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.3% year over year, below market expectations of 3.4%. The U.S. Core CPI rose 2.6% year over year, also below market expectations of 2.7%.

Banks such as Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) and investment banks like Goldman Sachs predict that gold may rebound in the long term, mainly driven by central bank demand, geopolitical uncertainty, and expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. ANZ expects the gold price to reach $5,800 by year-end, while Goldman Sachs maintains a $5,400 outlook, saying that central bank gold purchases will be a support factor.

Analyze market expectations before the release of the U.S. March CPI data, divergences in the inflation structure, and the potential transmission pathways to crypto assets’ risk appetite.

ING analyst Francesco Pesole said that if U.S. March CPI were to accelerate sharply due to energy prices rising after the Iran war, the dollar could receive support. He noted that whether core inflation shows any second-round effects will be crucial for the Federal Reserve’s policy in the coming months.

Gate News, April 10, international crude oil prices rose briefly. WTI crude oil (West Texas Intermediate, one of the international crude oil benchmark prices) broke above $100 per barrel, up 2.04% during the day; Brent crude oil (North Sea Brent, one of the international crude oil benchmark prices) stood above $95 per barrel, up 1.15% during the day.

Gate News news, on April 10, the Korea KOSPI Index (Korea’s stock market benchmark index) rose 8.96% this week, posting its largest weekly gain since January 2021.

Gate News: Message. On April 10, the U.S. Department of Labor will release the U.S. March CPI (Consumer Price Index) data at 20:30 Beijing time tonight. This release will include: the 3-month unadjusted CPI year-over-year rate, the seasonally adjusted CPI month-over-month rate, the seasonally adjusted core CPI month-over-month rate, and the unadjusted core CPI month-over-month rate. CPI data is a key indicator used to measure the level of inflation and has historically had an important impact on financial markets; it may trigger market volatility at the time of release.

Gate News update, April 10: after the South Korean and Japanese stock markets opened today, they saw gains. Market data shows the Nikkei 225 Index (Japan’s benchmark stock index) rose 1.59%, to 56,783.36 points; the Korean KOSPI Index (South Korea’s benchmark stock index) moved up to 5900 points, up 2.12% during the day.

Gate News: According to the latest Gate TradFi data, VIX (VIX) has dropped by 3% in a short period. Current volatility is significantly higher than recent averages, indicating increased market activity.