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This week’s PCE and nonfarm payrolls: I’m more interested in whether the data will “conflict”
The Federal Reserve already raised rates by 25 basis points in September, bringing the federal funds target range to 3.75%—4%. So the key this week is not guessing whether it will change course, but seeing whether the upcoming data will support keeping rates high.
First, there is the August PCE report released on September 30. The previous report showed that July headline PCE rose 3.7% year over year, while core PCE rose 3.3% year over year, meaning inflation remains some distance from the 2% target.

For this week’s PCE and nonfarm payrolls, I’m more interested in whether the data will “conflict”
The Federal Reserve already raised rates by 25 basis points in September, bringing the federal funds target range to 3.75%—4%. So the key this week is not guessing whether it will pivot, but seeing whether the upcoming data will support keeping rates high.
First up is the August PCE report due on September 30. The previous report for July showed headline PCE rising 3.7% year over year and core PCE rising 3.3% year over year, with inflation still some distance from the 2% target. Next is the Septem

What MINT really wants to retain may not be wallet addresses!
Most crypto platforms recognize only your wallet, but MINT seems to want to remember the person behind it.
Recently, while reviewing @PlayOnMint’s activity, I noticed something that appears frequently but is rarely discussed: Mint ID. When the official team holds events, participants are asked to leave their Mint ID rather than simply submit an address. This detail suggests that Mint ID may be more than just a nickname—it seems more like the identity gateway for users entering the entire MINT ecosystem.
A wallet can only prove what

In this BTC rally, what matters most is not the daily rise or fall, but whether capital is continuing to flow in
After the Federal Reserve's September rate hike, I originally thought high interest rates would put greater pressure on BTC. But as of September 25, spot BTC ETFs recorded net inflows for 7 consecutive U.S. trading days; over the 6 trading days from September 18 to 25, total net inflows were approximately $2.819 billion. On September 21 alone, inflows were close to $1 billion, and on the 25th they remained around $135 million, although the pace of inflows had clearly slowed.
These f

In this BTC rally, what’s most worth watching isn’t the daily rise or fall, but whether funds are continuing to flow in
After the Federal Reserve’s September rate hike, I originally thought high interest rates would put greater pressure on BTC. But as of September 25, spot BTC ETFs recorded net inflows for 7 consecutive U.S. stock market trading days; across the 6 trading days from September 18 to 25, total net inflows were approximately $2.82B. The single-day inflow on September 21 came close to $1 billion, and there was still approximately $135 million on the 25th, although the pace of inflo

If BTC suddenly crashes 20% tomorrow, the first thing I may want to look at is not BTC, but satUSD.
The reason is simple.
You can’t tell how stable a stablecoin really is during favorable conditions. The real stress test always comes when collateral drops rapidly, liquidations emerge in clusters, and market liquidity starts to tighten.
So when I revisited @RiverdotInc over the past two days, I deliberately shifted my attention away from things like TVL, yield, and cross-chain functionality to see exactly what satUSD relies on to hold $1.
The logic behind it is actually not complicated.
When sa

What exactly is behind USG?
Many stablecoins ultimately cannot avoid one question—you see $1, but where exactly are the underlying assets, liabilities, and risks?
What makes USG interesting is that it follows an on-chain overcollateralization model.
Users collateralize assets through different independent lending markets to mint USG, so its underlying collateral, debt, collateralization ratios, and even the risks of different markets can generally be traced directly on-chain.
A third-party analysis of USG’s on-chain risks once found that the system had 16 lending markets at the time, with no b

US-Iran release easing signals as markets first trade on “cooling expectations”
The US-Iran situation has finally shown some signs of easing. The latest news indicates that the two sides held lengthy communications during the UN General Assembly in New York. However, based on public reports, it would be more accurate to say that mediators were shuttling messages between the US and Iran, and the “three-hour direct talks” mentioned in the image cannot yet be fully confirmed. Trump subsequently said that the US and Iran were still negotiating that day and believed they would ultimately reach an a

The US and Iran release de-escalation signals as markets first trade on “cooling-off expectations”
The US-Iran situation has finally shown some signs of easing. The latest news indicates that the two sides engaged in lengthy communication during the UN General Assembly in New York. However, based on public reports, it would be more accurate to say that mediators shuttled messages between the US and Iran, and the “three-hour direct talks” mentioned in the image have not yet been fully confirmed. Trump subsequently said that the US and Iran were still negotiating that day and believed they could

BTC Reclaims $87,000—This Time, It’s Not Just the Shorts Taking a Hit
BTC briefly broke above $87,000, reaching an almost eight-month high, and is currently fluctuating around $85,000. Major coins including ETH and SOL also strengthened, while the crypto market’s total market capitalization climbed back above $3 trillion.
Two forces are behind this rally. First, spot capital has returned: U.S. BTC spot ETFs saw combined net inflows of approximately $593 million on Thursday and Friday, including about $433 million on Friday. Second, a short squeeze: approximately $919 million worth of short pos

BTC Reclaims $87,000, and This Time It’s Not Just Shorts Taking a Beating
BTC briefly broke above $87,000, hitting a new high in nearly eight months, and is currently consolidating around $85,000. Major coins such as ETH and SOL also strengthened in tandem, while the total crypto market cap reclaimed $3 trillion.
Two forces are driving this rally. First, spot capital has returned: U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw combined net inflows of approximately $593 million on Thursday and Friday, including about $433 million on Friday. Second, short sellers were squeezed, with approximately $919 million in short

Crypto total market cap nears $2.9 trillion—has rotation finally arrived?
This rebound is no longer being driven by BTC alone.
The latest data shows that the total crypto market cap has recovered to approximately $2.89 trillion, up nearly 3% in 24 hours; BTC has climbed back above $82k, with a market share of approximately 56.7%. Excluding BTC, the total market cap of the remaining crypto assets is approximately $1.25 trillion, indicating that incremental capital has indeed begun spreading into altcoins.
Market performance is even more direct: ETH has returned to around $2,670, HYPE is up more

FeaturedBTC Holds Above $80k, but It’s Still Too Early for Full Optimism
After reclaiming $80k, BTC is currently fluctuating around $80,400, having briefly touched $81,859 intraday; ETH has retreated to around $2,580, while SOL is around $108.5. Compared with BTC’s decline of less than 1%, ETH and SOL have pulled back more noticeably, indicating that although this rally has begun to broaden, capital has not yet formed a stable consensus around a broad-based rise.
Fund flows have indeed improved somewhat. On September 17, U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net inflows of approximately $159 million, including about

BTC Reclaims $80k, but This Time It’s More Than Just a Technical Rebound
This BTC rebound is indeed somewhat interesting.
Just a few days ago, the market was still worried about regulatory obstacles and Fed rate hikes, and BTC briefly fell to around $75k; it has now climbed back above $81k, up about 4.2% in 24 hours, with an intraday high of $81,618.
More importantly, capital is starting to return. After two consecutive days of outflows, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $160 million in net inflows again on Thursday. At the same time, risk appetite also spread to U.S. stocks: Coinb

The Fed’s first rate hike in three years—the thing that truly deserves caution is not these 25 basis points, but that the familiar market logic of rate cuts may no longer work.
This time, the rate was raised to 3.75%–4.00%, with all 12 votes in favor. The dot plot was even more hawkish: 16 of the 18 officials expect at least one more rate hike this year. This shows that it is not simply “making a correction,” but telling the market that as long as inflation cannot be brought down, high interest rates will continue.
The market’s reaction was also direct. The Dow closed down about 631 points, th

FeaturedThe Fed’s first rate hike in three years: what is truly worth watching is not these 25 basis points, but that the market’s familiar rate-cut logic may have already broken down.
This rate hike brings the target range to 3.75%–4.00%, passing unanimously with all 12 votes. The dot plot was even more hawkish: 16 of the 18 officials expect at least one more rate hike this year. This shows that it is not simply a matter of “making a minor correction,” but rather a message to the market that as long as inflation cannot be brought down, high interest rates will persist.
The market’s reaction was also