Bitcoin Reclaims $80k—Is This a Rebound or a Reversal?

BTC has climbed back above $80k and is currently trading around $81k. But I don’t think it’s time to rush to declare the “full bull market” has returned, because the real hurdles ahead have yet to be cleared.
From a fund-flow perspective, U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net inflows of approximately $301.6 million on September 3, while the previous day also recorded net inflows of $101.1 million, indicating that institutional funds are recovering. However, inflows and outflows have continued to fluctuate recently, so it is still too early to call this sustained one-way buying.
The macro environment has also delivered marginally positive news. After Federal Reserve officials issued dovish signals, market expectations for a September rate hike fell from around 63% to 50%, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield declined to around 4.75%, giving assets such as BTC and gold some breathing room.
Interestingly, the 90-day correlation between BTC and gold has risen to nearly a six-year high, while its correlation with the Nasdaq has declined instead. The market is once again trading on the logic of “hedging against currency depreciation,” but a higher correlation does not mean BTC will only rise and never fall from here.
Technically, the area around $82.8k is the next key resistance level. Only a decisive breakout and sustained hold above it would open the door to challenging $90k; if the surge fails, attention should turn to support around $75.7k and $71.8k.
My view is straightforward: this move is no longer just an ordinary minor rebound, but $80k looks more like a battleground between bulls and bears than a zone for blindly chasing gains. U.S. employment and inflation data only need to come in slightly above expectations for rate trades to reverse at any time. You can participate, but don’t deploy your entire position at once when sentiment is at its hottest.
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