ETF funds haven’t fully fled, but BTC was pinned down by macro factors first

The most noteworthy thing about Bitcoin over the past two days is not that ETF flows turned negative for a single day, but that fund flows and price have begun to diverge.

From September 2 to 4, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows for three consecutive trading days, totaling approximately $1.01B, including roughly $731 million in inflows on September 3 alone. By September 8, the overall flow had turned into a net outflow of $46.6 million, with the main pressure coming from a $65.5 million outflow from GBTC; meanwhile, IBIT, BITB, and ARKB continued to record net inflows.

Therefore, this turn into negative territory cannot yet be directly interpreted as a full-scale institutional retreat. It looks more like a divergence in flows among different products. The problem, however, is that BTC has now fallen to around $78.1k, briefly dipping to $77.8k intraday, indicating that more than $1 billion in ETF buying over the previous few days did not immediately translate into stronger prices.

The reasons are not hard to find. Brent crude has climbed back above $100, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has risen to around 4.84%, and market pricing for a September Fed rate hike briefly reached 60%. The upcoming PPI and CPI data will be the variables that truly determine the direction of risk assets.

My view is that BTC currently does have long-term funds providing support, but short-term macro selling pressure is stronger. A single-day ETF outflow of $46.6 million is not alarming; what is alarming is if oil prices, inflation, and interest-rate expectations continue rising simultaneously.

In the short term, first watch whether $78k can hold, then see whether ETFs record consecutive outflows. A single day of negative flows is normal volatility; only if the price breaks down and ETFs continue bleeding would that be a genuine signal to reduce exposure.#美国财政部将回购至多60亿美元美债