BTC surged before retreating, with bears temporarily prevailing in the battle for $80k

BTC's movement over the past few days has been very straightforward: breaking above $80k, failing to extend the rally, and then retreating rapidly.
The latest market data shows BTC currently fluctuating around $77,800. During trading on August 28, it reached a high of approximately $81,354 and dipped to a low of approximately $76,955, down about 3% on the day. This indicates that $80k is not yet effective support, but rather a resistance zone facing clear selling pressure.
The funding picture has also changed. After recording inflows for nine consecutive trading days, U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows of approximately $202 million on August 28. ARKB recorded net outflows of approximately $115 million, BITB saw approximately $49.7 million, and IBIT saw approximately $33.4 million. The ETFs' total net asset value also fell from approximately $100.9 billion the previous day to $97.59 billion.
Gold also faced a pullback. Spot gold briefly fell to approximately $4,567 per ounce on Friday, down more than 3% on the day. The Federal Reserve's hawkish remarks boosted rate-hike expectations, while the dollar and short-term U.S. Treasury yields strengthened, putting pressure on both BTC and gold.
The 90-day correlation between BTC and gold rising above 50%, while its correlation with the Nasdaq 100 fell to approximately 33%, only indicates that the two assets have become more closely linked over a recent period; it does not directly mean that BTC has completed its “digital gold” pricing. For now, interest-rate expectations have once again become the dominant variable, and the two assets can still fall together.
My view is that the short-term focus should first be on whether $76,900–$77,000 can hold. If it does, BTC still has a chance to challenge $80k again; if it breaks lower, this breakout will look more like a surge and retreat following a short squeeze. Only by reclaiming and holding $80k–$81,300 can the market truly be considered to have regained strength.
This is not the time to simply call for a bullish move. ETF funds have already reversed course, and $80,000 has been lost again. First see whether support can hold, then discuss the next rally.
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