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This week’s FOMC is indeed somewhat unusual. The Fed will announce its rate decision and economic projections in the early hours of September 17 Beijing time. The market is now pricing in roughly a 95% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike, while institutions including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have also shifted toward expecting a hike. The target range may rise to 3.75%—4.00%.

The reason is straightforward: U.S. CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year in August, while PPI rose as much as 5.4% year-on-year. Coupled with oil prices rising again, inflationary pressure clearly has not passed.

But I believe the rate hike itself may have already been largely priced in by the market. What will truly determine the subsequent trend is the dot plot and the Fed’s comments on the number of future rate hikes. If it delivers just a 25-basis-point hike while signaling caution, risk assets could instead rebound once the bearish news is priced in. If it hints at a new round of consecutive hikes, the market will lower valuations again.

Currently, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is already near 5%, while the U.S. Dollar Index has risen to around 99.55; BTC is around $77,570, and ETH around $2,495.

So tonight is not suitable for taking an early one-sided bet. The first wave of volatility is very likely to be a false move. It is more important to first listen carefully to what the Fed says, then see whether BTC can hold $77,000, rather than guess whether prices will rise or fall. #美联储即将公布利率决定 @Gate 广场