This week’s FOMC is indeed somewhat unusual. The Fed will announce its rate decision and economic projections in the early hours of September 17 Beijing time. The market is currently pricing in about a 95% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike, while institutions including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have also shifted toward expecting a hike. The rate range may rise to 3.75%–4.00%.

The reason is straightforward: U.S. CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year in August, while PPI reached 5.4% year-on-year. Combined with oil prices rising again, inflationary pressure clearly has not yet passed.
However, I believe the rate hike itself may already have been largely priced in by the market. What will truly determine the subsequent trend is the dot plot and the Fed’s comments on the number of future rate hikes. If it delivers just a 25-basis-point hike while signaling caution, risk assets could instead rebound once the bearish news is priced in; only if it hints at a new round of consecutive hikes will the market lower valuations again.
Currently, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is already near 5%, while the U.S. Dollar Index has risen to around 99.55; BTC is around $77,570 and ETH around $2,495.
So it is not suitable to bet prematurely on a one-way move tonight. The first wave of volatility is very likely to be a false move. It is more important to first hear clearly what the Fed says and then see whether BTC can hold $77,000 than to guess the direction.
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