The latest two sets of U.S. data have presented the market with a difficult puzzle.
The August ISM Manufacturing PMI fell from 55.6 to 54.6, below the expected 55.2, indicating that the pace of manufacturing expansion is slowing; however, the Prices Paid Index remained elevated at 71.1, showing that inflationary pressure has not cooled significantly.
The labor market is likewise stable on the surface but cooling underneath. July JOLTS job openings came in at 7.27M, higher than the revised June figure of 7.18M, but hiring fell by 278k to 278k, indicating that companies are not carrying out mass layoffs but are also becoming increasingly reluctant to hire.
The real problem is that rising oil prices continue to push up inflation expectations, while U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar strengthen in tandem. The market is currently pricing in a 66%—68% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in September, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly approached 4.8%.
Risk assets have already begun to come under pressure, with all three major U.S. stock indexes closing lower and the Nasdaq falling about 1%; BTC has also been oscillating repeatedly around $78,000.
The next key event is the August nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for 20:30 Beijing time on September 4. If employment is too strong, it will further reinforce rate-hike expectations; if employment weakens significantly, it will fuel concerns about economic cooling. For BTC, the short-term narrative is no longer simply “bad data means a rally”; the market must also watch how the dollar, Treasury yields, and rate-hike probabilities are repriced.
Personally, I will focus on the strength of support around $78,000. Before the nonfarm payrolls report is released, chasing rallies or selling into declines can easily lead to getting whipsawed; the true direction may not be confirmed until after the data is published.
#BTC # Contract

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Comment 4

Metal frame book page cross2026-09-02

The decline in JOLTS hiring is the real hidden signal: companies aren’t laying off workers, but they aren’t expanding either, and the soft-landing narrative is becoming fragile. Wait for the nonfarm payrolls report—opening trades before the data is just handing fees to the market makers.

allogi2026-09-02

reversal in the broader cryptocurrency rebound. Warsh said current financial conditions are not restrictive and emphasized that inflation must clearly move toward the Federal Reserve’s target. This reinforced market expectations that monetary policy . Of course, he did not reveal the direction of future policy. From that perspective, this was a win-win for both Warsh and the market.”$BTC

FlagPoleCatcher2026-09-02

Manufacturing PMI and the Prices Paid Index are sending conflicting signals, giving the Fed a headache too. The market is currently pricing in a 66% probability of a rate hike, but even if it actually hikes, risk assets may not fall much—the expectations are already fully priced in.

ScalperApprentice2026-09-02

78k is indeed a delicate level. If it holds, we may see a bounce; if not, we’ll have to look at 75k. I plan to reduce my positions and stay on the sidelines before the nonfarm payrolls report, rather than bet on a direction.

Data Divergence Ahead of Nonfarm Payrolls, September Rate Hike Suspense Mounts

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