🐧 The rebound of Pudgy Penguins and token unlocks occurred simultaneously, with analysts highlighting liquidity exit risks

Pudgy Penguins' recent rebound may be a breakout driven by ecosystem momentum. According to on-chain data, this move seems to have unexpectedly benefited long-term holders.
According to Bradley Park, founder of DNTV Research, this surge may have provided liquidity, meaning there are enough buyers in the market for large holders to sell after the token unlock in mid-April.
"News about Pengu Card, PenguBot, and other ecosystem updates are at best secondary narratives," Park told CoinDesk. "The real story is the large-scale token unlock, which happened about 10 days ago."
Token unlocks are the planned release of token supplies, akin to the expiration of lockups after an IPO, which periodically floods the market with newly available shares.
Park pointed out that the token unlock on April 17, involving about 703 million PENGU — roughly 0.79% of the total supply of about 88 billion — entered the market in one batch.
In the following hours, on-chain activity, combined with a sharp increase in futures positions, tracked patterns seen during previous unlocks, with large holders selling during windows of rising liquidity.
The main unlock wallet received 182.8 million PENGU and dispersed it into 19 different addresses within approximately 50 minutes.
Park described this sequence as a "staged claiming and dispersal" pattern, which is more commonly associated with preparing for sale rather than long-term holding.
The mechanism is straightforward: tokens are released from the unlock contract and split into multiple wallets, so the final sell-off can be broken into small enough parts that no single transaction adversely impacts the market.
Futures markets moved in tandem. PENGU's open interest rose from about $36 million to $59 million during the rebound, with repeated short squeezes further amplifying the upward momentum.