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I noticed a very sharp market movement today, and the reason is clear: geopolitical tensions in the Middle East cast their shadow over everything. Global markets are reacting violently, and energy is the main driver of the movement.
Oil prices surged strongly, with Brent surpassing $82 per barrel, up about 5 percent. European gas is in worse shape, rising 30 percent due to fears of supply disruptions. These are not just numbers; they are a direct reflection of the uncertainty currently dominating investors.
Interestingly, the dollar is the real winner in all this. The DXY dollar index rose above 99.39 points, up 0.84 percent, and people are rushing toward dollar safety. When there is fear, the dollar is always the safe haven. All this volatility is pushing investors to seek strong dollar liquidity.
Gold declined by 3.5 percent, settling at $5,173 per ounce. It may seem strange that gold falls amid crises, but the strength of the DXY dollar index pulls gold downward. Investors currently prefer dollar cash over precious metals.
American stocks are under real pressure. S&P 500 futures declined due to fears of rising inflation caused by energy prices. Bitcoin also didn't escape; it dropped below $67,000, down 3.7 percent, amid a broad sell-off in digital assets.
In the Gulf, markets resumed trading but with great caution. The minimum price correction threshold was reduced to just 5 percent to reduce shocks. UAE and Saudi banks are moving cautiously, trying to rebalance their portfolios.
On the Asian side, technology is suffering. Samsung and Korean and Japanese tech companies recorded their worst daily performance in a long time. Fears of supply chain disruptions and declining demand for electronics are weighing heavily.
In the United States, the financial figures are interesting. The budget deficit decreased by 17 percent in the first months of the fiscal year, but that doesn’t mean the problems are over. High interest rates and increased defense spending will pressure the budget in the second half of the year.
Important data today include US employment figures and the ISM services survey. These will determine the upcoming market direction. If the data are weak, we may see another wave of selling. If strong, the pressure may ease slightly.
The strange thing here is that the DXY dollar index is rising while the US economy faces challenges. But this is normal in times of crisis; the dollar rises because it is the safest option. The DXY dollar index is the indicator I watch closely these days because it tells you a lot about global market sentiment.