Based on the price action, AAVE’s monthly chart has already printed a doji this month—this is clearly a reversal signal! Looking at the trend as well, the price has indeed smashed down into the bottom area of the pullback zone. The technicals have already given plenty of reasons for a rebound. If it keeps dropping from here, even the bears will start to get nervous.

But first, let’s cool things down: recently, AAVE was stolen for more than 200 million. This is absolutely not something to brush off. On the surface, the official says the breach has been patched, as if the crisis is already over. But once trust cracks, how could it be patched up in just three or five days? Just look at the data: in those three days after the incident, funds fled wildly—over 16 billion. There are still plenty of people lining up to unlock and exit, and panic is almost overflowing. From a fundamentals perspective, this whole mess doesn’t deserve a rebound at all. By normal logic, it wouldn’t be surprising if the price just breaks through the previous lows.

But in the crypto market, it never follows “normal logic.” The more a project is rotten to the core—where everyone is shouting that it’s going to go under—the easier it is to use news like “the crisis has been resolved” to pump out a hard move. What the main players are best at is this kind of panic setup: once everyone has cut their losses and leaves the market, they then pull up with a big bullish candle from the other side—so you can’t even chase it.

Right now, the situation is that contradictory: the fundamentals are bad beyond measure, yet the technical reversal signals are right there. The fight between bulls and bears is already raging. No one can say whether the next move will be bargain-hunting capital exploding the shorts, or the panic crowd continuing to smash through the floor.

But to be real, overall I still think the probability of being bullish is higher. Even if the fundamentals are terrible, as long as there’s money willing to step in and take over, the short term can still see a decent rebound. After all, the current price has already priced in most of the bad news. If it keeps getting smashed down further, the room left is really limited. But let me put the ugly truth out front: this kind of rebound is like licking blood off a knife—don’t get greedy, take profits when you see gains. If it gets smashed again, you won’t be able to run away!
$AAVE ‌