a16z: Understand the future evolution of stablecoins through 9 images

Author: Robert Hackett, Jeremy Zhang, a16z Crypto

Original compilation: Chopper, Foresight News

For years, stablecoins have been searching for their core positioning.

Initially, they were just a trading tool used to transfer US dollar assets between major exchanges. Later, stablecoins evolved into a savings instrument, becoming an asset held long-term rather than for daily spending. Today, all data points to a new development direction: stablecoins are becoming a core global financial infrastructure.

The following nine charts illustrate the underlying trends driving this transformation.

Regulatory Implementation Accelerates Market Growth

During most stages of stablecoin development, regulatory uncertainty long limited institutional capital entry. With the implementation of the GENIUS Act, regulatory frameworks are becoming clearer. The act is not the origin of the industry trend but has accelerated its development.

Changes in stablecoin trading volume before and after the GENIUS Act

The U.S. established a federal-level stablecoin issuance regulatory framework through the GENIUS Act. Data clearly confirms the policy impact: in the quarters before the act, stablecoin trading volume had been steadily rising; after the act took effect, growth further accelerated, reaching about $4.5 trillion in the first quarter of 2026.

MiCA Promotes Non-USD Stablecoin Market

The European Crypto Asset Market Regulation (MiCA) presents a more complex picture. After full implementation at the end of 2024, several major exchanges delisted USDT due to compliance reasons, directly causing a short-term surge in non-USD stablecoin trading volume, peaking over $40 billion.

Subsequently, market trading volume stabilized, with the overall base significantly higher than before MiCA’s implementation, maintaining monthly transaction scales between $15 billion and $25 billion. The new regulatory rules have created a previously almost nonexistent demand market for non-USD stablecoins.

Stablecoin Commercial Payment Scene Continues to Expand

The most significant structural change may be how people actually use stablecoins.

Stablecoin commercial payments concentrated in C2C

In terms of transaction count, person-to-person (C2C) transactions lead by a wide margin, totaling 789.5 million transactions in 2025. Meanwhile, person-to-business (C2B) transactions are growing the fastest, increasing from 124.9 million in 2024 to 284.6 million in 2025, a 128% year-over-year increase.

Trend of stablecoin payment card infrastructure growth

Data from stablecoin payment cards also confirms this trend.

Based on Rain technology, projects like Etherfi Cash, Kast, Wallbit, and others saw monthly collateral deposits jump from nearly zero in November 2024 to over $300 million per month by early 2026. Although these funds are used as collateral guarantees for payments rather than direct stablecoin spending, their growth curve is highly indicative: the stablecoin commercial payment scene is rapidly emerging.

Stablecoin Circulation Speed Significantly Accelerates

The turnover frequency of each dollar of stablecoin is increasing rapidly.

Trend of stablecoin circulation speed

Since early 2024, the circulation speed of stablecoins (adjusted monthly transfer volume ÷ circulating market cap) has nearly doubled, rising from 2.6 times to 6 times. Faster circulation speed means that the growth rate of stablecoin transaction demand has surpassed new issuance, greatly improving the utilization efficiency of existing funds.

This is also a core feature of mature payment networks: the underlying currency is used at high frequency rather than passively held.

Shift in Transaction Structure, Payment Attributes Highlighted

If we exclude behaviors like trading, fund flows, and exchange mechanisms (which constitute most stablecoin transactions), the estimated payment volume among different participants last year was between $350 billion and $550 billion.

B2B stablecoin payments dominate

Business-to-business (B2B) remains the main force behind stablecoin payments, maintaining the largest share. Meanwhile, segmented scenarios like personal transfers and merchant transactions are expanding rapidly.

High Geographic Concentration of Stablecoin Payments

From a geographic perspective, stablecoin payment activity is unevenly distributed.

Asia is the main region for stablecoin payments

Nearly two-thirds of transaction volume comes from Asia, mainly from Singapore, Hong Kong, and Japan.

North America accounts for about a quarter, Europe around 13%. Latin America and Africa combined are very small, totaling less than $1 billion overall.

Domestic Stablecoins Rely on Global Underlying Networks

The rise of non-USD stablecoins is not unique to Europe; emerging markets are also rapidly adopting them, driven by different logic.

Change in monthly transfer volume of BRLA, a Brazilian real-pegged stablecoin

Brazil is a clear example. The monthly transaction volume of BRLA, supported by the Brazilian real, grew from nearly zero at the start of 2023 to about $400 million by early 2026, greatly boosted by integration with Brazil’s instant payment network PIX.

The cross-border payment attribute of stablecoins is weakening

For a long time, stablecoins have been broadly defined as cross-border tools, but the share of cross-border transactions is steadily declining.

Domestic transactions now account for about 50% at the start of 2024, rising to nearly 70% by early 2026. This change sends a clear signal: the core value of stablecoins is no longer limited to cross-border remittances and forex exchanges; they are gradually transforming into localized daily payment tools based on global underlying networks.

Summary

All data combined paints a clear industry picture, quite different from previous public expectations: many believed the core value of stablecoins centered on cross-border transfers. The reality is quite the opposite—stablecoins are becoming deeply localized. While USD stablecoins still dominate, non-USD stablecoins backed by local fiat currencies like the euro and Brazilian real are steadily increasing their market share.

Although P2P transfers remain the largest use case, the proportion of daily commercial payments is steadily rising.

Quarterly data continues to confirm: stablecoins are gradually evolving into a universal public payment infrastructure. They are inherently global but are increasingly being adopted locally.

The industry is still in its early stages, but the final form and development pattern of stablecoins are becoming increasingly clear.