Something that truly deserves our attention right now: analysts are starting to sound the alarm about a deeper bearish scenario than many think. CK Zheng from ZX Squared Capital has just shared an interesting perspective on Bitcoin market dynamics, and honestly, it puts a lot into perspective.

The pattern is quite clear if we look at the history. After the April 2024 halving, BTC rose to over $126,000 in October 2025 — this is a classic 16 to 18-month cycle. But since then, things have calmed down. The price has stabilized around $77,850, which roughly corresponds to the four-year cycle traders have been following for years.

What’s interesting is that Zheng doesn’t believe it’s over. His team at ZX analyzes that the market could still drop about 30% before the end of 2026. And honestly, when we look at market psychology, that’s not unreasonable. Retail investors always do the same thing: they buy when everyone is euphoric and sell when panic sets in. It’s a cycle that keeps repeating.

The really interesting factor here is institutional adoption. There’s a lot of talk about crypto ETFs and companies holding Bitcoin as an asset reserve, but in reality, it only accounts for about 10% of the overall market. That’s less than most people think. And here’s the problem: if conditions worsen, these same companies could be forced to sell to meet their obligations. When that happens, it creates additional pressure that pushes prices downward.

So yes, the bear market is deepening, and cycles remain the masters of the game. This is the kind of dynamic that funds like ZX Squared Capital are watching very closely right now.