I noticed an interesting analysis from Bitwise about the risks of Bitcoin depending on the holding period. It turns out that if you hold BTC for at least three years, the probability of loss is only 0.7%. The longer you hold, the more comfortably you can sleep: with a five-year period, the risk drops to 0.2%, and with ten years, it’s actually zero.

And day traders are the ones taking full risks. Bitwise showed that for them, the probability of losses reaches 47%, for weekly holders 44.7%, monthly 43.2%. Even holding for a year carries a 24% risk of losses. A pretty significant difference compared to long-term investors.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading around 77,000 dollars, and according to Bitwise, investors who held for three to five years bought on average at 34,780 dollars. This means they are sitting on about 90% unrealized profit. That’s why long-term investors usually remain calmer about price fluctuations — history shows that time works in their favor.