Recently, Grayscale published an interesting perspective, suggesting that Bitcoin may not reach a new high until 2026.

This judgment actually challenges the widely circulated "four-year cycle" theory in the market.

Grayscale's logic is as follows — this round of the market is different from the past.
The crazy parabolic surge driven by retail investors has not appeared; instead, institutional funds are continuously flowing in.
This has changed the rhythm of the entire cycle.

In addition to institutional buying, Grayscale also points out that possible interest rate cuts in the U.S. are a supporting factor.
Coupled with recent progress in U.S. crypto regulation, all these are shaping a market environment different from before.
Therefore, Grayscale's conclusion is — don't rely too much on the old four-year cycle theory; this time, we might really have to wait until 2026 to see new highs.

This perspective is worth pondering.
If Grayscale's judgment is correct, it means the market structure is indeed undergoing profound changes, shifting from retail-driven to institutional-driven.
This is actually very key to understanding the subsequent trend.
It feels like Grayscale's recent research reports are becoming increasingly valuable as a reference; those interested can check out their detailed analysis themselves.