Looking at last week’s market, it seems like two completely different stories were unfolding. Early on, the market was optimistic about peace talks—the Nasdaq rose 4.5%, Bitcoin increased by 2.6%, and the fear index VIX fell below 20. But by Friday night, when the discussions in Islamabad failed and the U.S. announced a complete naval blockade at Iran’s port, everything changed. Brent crude jumped 8% in a day, moving above $103, and gains in risk assets flew.

When you look at market dynamics, you can see how experienced traders like Wintermute are analyzing the situation. They say that ceasefire trading is essentially dead, and the market is returning to a state of tension. U.S. CPI data was actually somewhat reassuring—up 3.3% over 3 months, and core CPI at 2.6%, both lower than forecasts. But the market is viewing this only as an energy crisis, not widespread inflation.

From Bitcoin’s perspective, it has been stuck between $65,000 and $73,000 for the past two months. This week it rose 2.6%, but it didn’t lead the way. According to Wintermute’s observations, spot ETFs saw inflows of $2.23 billion last week, which is a positive sign. Ethereum ETFs are also doing well—so far, $327 million is coming in.

If you listen to what the options market is saying, traders are keeping heavy gamma exposure in the $68,000 to $72,000 range. That means it will be easier for price to move quickly in either direction within this range. Wintermute says that if the Strait of Hormuz reopens—which would lower oil prices—risk assets could gain fresh strength, and Bitcoin could break above $75,000. At the current price of 77.84K, it has already surpassed that level.

But heed Wintermute’s caution: the market’s reaction is weakening with every new headline. It could be that the worst-case scenario has already been priced in, or that the market is becoming overly confident. If the broader upward trend holds, Bitcoin could break out of this range, but downward pressure will still remain. Wintermute’s analysis suggests the market still isn’t sure about its next major move.