I just saw a quite interesting phenomenon in the energy market. Recently, WTI crude oil has actually surpassed Brent, which is the first time in nearly four years. The logic behind this is actually worth pondering.

Since the escalation of the US-Iran conflict, the global energy supply chain pattern has been completely disrupted. Once the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint, faces risks, the oil relying on maritime transportation—Brent crude—begins to depreciate—because shipping costs soar, and insurance fees also jump. In contrast, WTI, delivered directly to refineries in the Gulf of Mexico via a mature pipeline network, suddenly turns this "land advantage" into a core competitive edge.

Germini Energy's founder Germini made an observation I find particularly spot-on: "Market reactions are actually very straightforward—buyers no longer pay a premium for 'oil representing the global market,' but instead pay for 'oil they can actually get.'" This sentence reveals the true mindset of the current market.

Looking at the futures structure, the situation becomes even clearer. WTI's December contract is only around $77, but the May contract is actually $25 more expensive. Investors are now frantically rushing to buy spot oil, aiming to lock in the supply they can get now, while also betting that the conflict might ease within a few months. Meanwhile, in the spot market, Brent has already quoted over $140 a barrel.

Pacey, chairman of Stratas Advisors, even issued a warning, saying that after the US announced a maritime blockade of Iranian ports, Brent spot prices could surge to between $160 and $190 in the coming weeks. If this number actually materializes, the consequences would be severe—triggering large-scale "demand destruction," forcing consumers to significantly cut oil use, and increasing the risk of an economic recession.

Interestingly, many analysts believe that this extreme price pressure could ultimately bring the US and Iran back to the negotiation table. Germini and other market observers are watching this potential turning point—if prices stay high for a long time, the economic pressure might be more convincing than the conflict itself. The energy market now resembles a pressure cooker, waiting to see who will crack first.