I just noticed something quite interesting while reviewing market moves these days. It seems that every time there’s a major geopolitical conflict, capital follows exactly the same script. And it’s not a coincidence: over the last 36 years, we’ve seen this script repeat at least four times, and it always ends the same way.

Here’s how it goes: when war is on the horizon but hasn’t broken out yet, fear takes control. Oil spikes, gold shines, and stock markets fall. But here comes the counterintuitive part: once the first cannon shot truly sounds, everything changes. Uncertainty disappears—and with it, capital’s panic. So paradoxically, that’s when markets begin to recover.

Look at the Gulf War of 1990–1991. Oil rose more than 100% in just two months after Iraq invaded Kuwait, jumping from 20 to over 40 dollars. The S&P 500 fell by nearly 20%. But on January 17, 1991, when Operation Desert Storm began, something surprising happened: oil collapsed by more than 30% in a single day, and stocks started a V-shaped recovery that reached new all-time highs within a matter of months.

The same thing happened in 2003 with Iraq. For months, while diplomatic negotiations continued and military preparations increased, the market was bleeding. The S&P 500 kept falling steadily, and capital fled to gold and U.S. Treasury bonds. But when missiles actually flew toward Baghdad, the market interpreted that the worst had already been priced in. The absolute bottom came a week before the war started. Then came a four-year bull market.

Now, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in 2022 was different. It wasn’t just emotional panic. Russia controls energy and industrial metals; Ukraine is Europe’s granary. When it broke out, Brent oil surpassed 130 dollars, European natural gas multiplied, and commodity prices like wheat and nickel hit record highs. But what was truly deadly was that it destroyed global supply chains, triggering the most severe inflation in 40 years. The Federal Reserve was forced to start the most aggressive rate hike cycle in its history. The result: in 2022, stocks and bonds fell together—something that almost never happens. The Nasdaq dropped by more than 30%.

So here is the real “high script” that capital repeats over and over again: there are three phases. First, preparation: pure panic, safe havens surge, stocks fall. Second, the breakout: uncertainty gets resolved, and with it, panic evaporates. Third, clarification: if the war doesn’t truly interrupt global supply chains, markets rebound quickly. But if it does, then the pain lasts much longer.

What the market really fears isn’t the war itself. It’s the waiting. It’s uncertainty. Because uncertainty is impossible to price. Once you know what’s going to happen—no matter whether it’s bad—at least you can assign a number to it.

For the average investor, this means something important: don’t try to make money from the war. The information gap is brutal. When you’re thinking about going long on oil because the conflict escalated, Wall Street’s quant funds are already set up to take profits and sell the news.

What you can do is defend yourself. Keep 20–30% in cash and equivalents. Allocate 10–15% to gold or energy as an insurance policy against inflation, but don’t buy at panic highs. Put the remaining 30–40% into broad indices or leading companies with solid cash flows. If you hold cryptocurrencies, reduce volatile altcoins and keep Bitcoin as the long-term base, or switch to stablecoins on trusted regulated platforms.

And please, never use leverage during times of geopolitical crisis. A ceasefire announcement in the middle of the night can make oil drop 10% in minutes. With leverage, you could be liquidated before long-term victory arrives.

The real art in times of uncertainty isn’t predicting accurately. It’s staying calm when everyone else is panicking, preserving capital, and remembering that the flames always go out and order is always rebuilt. At the peak of extreme panic, the most unnatural move is simply doing nothing. And surprisingly, that’s often the most correct one.