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I looked at Glassnode's latest data and see a rather unfavorable signal for Bitcoin. The realized profit-loss ratio of the 90-day moving average has fallen below 1, meaning the market is currently selling at a loss overall. Every time this indicator drops, historically, a loss realization cycle continues for at least six months.
Looking back at past periods, in 2022, Bitcoin dropped about 25% within six months after this stage; in 2018, there was a decline of over 50%. If Glassnode's analysis continues, the price could face significant pressure in the coming months, with a target around $44,000.
If leverage reduction and selling pressure persist, Bitcoin may experience tougher days until the cyclical cleansing is complete. When the indicator rises above 1, it usually signals a easing of selling pressure, but we may need to wait a bit longer to reach that point.