Last week, I noticed something interesting. As Nasdaq has been rebounding from red to green for 10 straight days, Bitcoin has just surpassed $74,000. This is no coincidence. Both are telling the same story—markets are pulling themselves out of the fear of war.

Let’s start with the American markets. Standard & Poor’s is up 1.2%, and Nasdaq jumped 1.8%. This isn’t just a one-day story—Nasdaq has now had 10 consecutive days of gains, its longest winning streak since 2021. From the worst point at the end of March, it has climbed more than 10% in just three weeks. That’s huge.

But why? Everything comes back to the PPI data. March’s Producer Price Index came in far lower than expected. Core PPI rose by only 0.1%, while the market had expected 0.5%. What does that mean? Inflation is mainly confined to the energy sector and isn’t spreading to the rest of the economy. This has increased the chances that the Fed will cut interest rates. When expectations for lower interest rates start to build, risky assets fly.

The banking sector also brought good news. Citigroup beat expectations, and Goldman Sachs announced its second-highest quarterly profit in its history. Tech stocks are shifting from “irrationally expensive” to “reasonably valued.” Oracle has risen another 5% after gaining 13% the day before.

Oil prices are playing an even more interesting game. WTI is down by nearly 8%, having slipped below $100. Why? The possibility of second-phase talks. Trump said the parties are in contact by phone, and Iran’s foreign minister said they’re one step away from a deal. Reuters reported that a second phase could begin this week. But history shows that when two sides come in from completely opposite positions, a quick resolution is hard. Still, the market remains optimistic.

Gold has reached $4,798. Both the good news from PPI and the dollar’s weakness are supporting gold. The 10-year bond yield has fallen to 4.297%.

Now let’s talk about crypto. Bitcoin is currently at $77.77 thousand. This is the highest level since the war began. Starting from April 7, it has risen by more than 12% in just 8 trading days. Short positions between $72,200 and $73,500 have been squeezed—there was $60 billion worth of leveraged shorts there. Now, a new short squeeze is underway.

Bitcoin’s current “identity” has become a “high beta technology asset”—it has more than 85% correlation with Nasdaq. When the stock market surges, crypto surges too. When fears of risk emerge, crypto falls the most. That’s the game.

But there’s a caveat here. Is Nasdaq continuing its run into an 11th day, or will this be a clearing day? If the second-phase discussions fall apart, the ceasefire ends after April 22, or oil prices return above $110, then BTC may fall back toward $65,000—or even near $60,000. The market is betting on good outcomes, but there are still some weaknesses that can’t be ignored. Citadel’s Griffin said if the channel stays closed for six months, the global economy will fall into recession. Goldman Sachs says six major advanced economies will raise interest rates. All of this poses long-term challenges for the market. Next week will be important.