I noticed an interesting point in the oil market — for the first time in four years, WTI has surpassed Brent in price. This happened on April 2nd, and it’s not just a number in a table, but a reflection of a serious restructuring of the entire energy flow logic after the escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran at the end of February.

The essence of what is happening is a reassessment of what is actually valued in the market. Previously, Brent received a premium as a symbol of global oil trading via maritime routes. But when the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed, the situation turned upside down. Oil from the Persian Gulf, associated with Brent, now carries risk — tanker insurance costs have skyrocketed, and some supplies have simply stopped. Meanwhile, WTI, delivered via pipeline directly to plants on the Gulf of Mexico, suddenly became much more attractive. The land-based advantage proved stronger in conditions where maritime risks are penalized by the market.

Germini Energy founder said exactly: the market now pays not for oil that supposedly represents the global market, but for the oil that can actually be obtained. This has changed the entire structure. The spot premium has reached extreme levels — WTI December contracts are trading around $77 per barrel, and May contracts are $25 higher. Investors are buying spot commodities, trying to compensate for current disruptions, while also hoping that the conflict will ease in the coming months.

On the physical market, Brent price has already surpassed $140 per barrel. Stratas Advisors analysts warn that with the announcement of the US maritime blockade of Iranian ports, the situation will become even more complicated — spot oil prices could rise to $160–190. If this continues, demand destruction will begin: consumers will be forced to sharply reduce consumption, which could trigger a global recession.

The paradox is that it is precisely this economic threat that could become the only lever to bring the US and Iran back to the negotiating table. The market operates harshly, but sometimes it is this harshness that forces people to make the right decisions.