On-chain, I hardly believe in "coincidental transfers" anymore; nine times out of ten, it's just that the path hasn't been broken down: first, breaking up from CEX/large addresses, passing through a couple of hops to converge on the same route, then swapping in the same pool, interacting with the same contract, and finally hiding in a bunch of new addresses. If you only focus on A→B, it definitely looks like a supernatural event, but actually it's people saving on fees/slippage, and also avoiding tracking. Change the route and you won't understand it anymore.

Recently, social mining and fan tokens—those "attention as mining" schemes—are basically just another way of packaging transfer paths: first feeding your attention to someone, then having you complete traffic distribution for others... Anyway, in the end, it's still about who takes the chips.

As for "long-term," I don't adhere to strict rules. On the chain, I consider three weeks to two months as long-term; exceeding a quarter, I admit I’m not sure: too many variables, just focus on surviving first.