Polymarket Research: Only 3.5% of Traders Profit

CryptoWorld News reports that, according to research by London Business School and Yale University, only 3.5% of traders in the prediction market are profitable, with most traders providing liquidity for a minority of traders with significant informational advantages. Researchers Roberto Gomez-Cram and others analyzed trading data from 2023 to 2025 and found that most participants did not improve market accuracy but instead financed a small group with more information advantage. Market makers and experienced traders account for over 30% of the platform’s total profits, with each account earning an average of approximately $11,830. About 29% of users are classified as “lucky winners,” whose profits mainly depend on luck. The remaining participants are called “unlucky losers,” collectively bearing market losses. The study points out that the rapid growth of prediction markets (monthly trading volume exceeding $15 billion) has raised regulatory concerns, as insider trading could become an issue due to limited market oversight, users trading under pseudonyms, contracts closely linked to real-world events, and the difficulty in detecting behaviors involving private information.