U.S.-Iran Showdown: “Fake Negotiations, Real Wartime Readiness” — A Deep Struggle Between Energy and Finance

The recent U.S.-Iran situation has been unpredictable and highly changeable. It looks like negotiations on the surface, but beneath that there are undercurrents. Behind it all is a major chess game involving energy alignments and financial maneuvering—one that even financial beginners can grasp the key points of.

## 1. The U.S. Tightens Financial Sanctions on Iran, Sealing Off Crypto as Its “Money Bag”

The U.S. Department of the Treasury has launched a new round of financial sanctions against Iran. Not only does it target shipping companies, vessels, and refineries involved in Iranian oil transportation, it also freezes Iran’s 344 million U.S. dollars’ worth of cryptocurrency assets. Stablecoin issuers have likewise blocked accounts related to Iran.

Long subjected to U.S. sanctions, Iran treats cryptocurrency as a breakthrough tool. Its central bank holds about 500 million U.S. dollars in Tether (USDT), used to support Iran’s national currency, the rial, and to settle international trade. Due to severe devaluation of the rial, many people also exchange into USDT for value preservation. By the end of 2025, Iran’s crypto ecosystem has reached nearly 8 billion U.S. dollars, with USDT as the core tool. The U.S. move is aimed at further sealing off Iran’s Revolutionary Guard “money bag.”

At the same time, the U.S. Treasury Secretary has ruled out the possibility of extending exemptions for Iranian and Russian oil, seeking to squeeze Iran’s overseas oil revenue.

## 2. Iran’s Foreign Minister Makes an Emergency Trip to Three Countries to Break the Deadlock on Supplies and Energy

Iran’s foreign minister suddenly announced a visit to Pakistan, Oman, and Russia. The purpose is clear:

• **Pakistan:** To communicate about potential talks and convey messages to the United States.

• **Oman:** With Oman located in the Arabian Sea, it is a major choke point of U.S. blockade. Iran hopes Oman will help import and export important supplies, including oil—and even help resolve the problem of land-based oil storage tanks nearing full capacity (after 2 - 3 weeks, some refineries may reduce output).

• **Russia:** To seek support in military, oil, and grain supplies. Iran’s land routes (which require coordination with Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia, making it difficult to manage relations) and Caspian Sea shipping (the port of Anzali was hit in a surprise attack by the U.S. and Israel; shipping capacity is limited and there is a risk of being targeted) both face challenges. Yet Iran still chose to visit Russia, showing how urgent its material and economic pressures are.

## 3. “Fake Negotiations, Real Wartime Readiness” — The Risk of Escalation in Fighting Increases

The U.S. side has disclosed that U.S. forces are studying operational plans for a new conflict with Iran, including assessing targets such as Iran’s military forces around the Strait of Hormuz—intended to apply pressure. Iran’s visit to multiple countries, meanwhile, indirectly reflects that it is preparing for a possible further escalation of conflict, focusing on issues such as oil, the transportation of supplies, and the “money bag.”

The core differences between the U.S. and Iran (Iran’s nuclear issue, handling of uranium, and control of the Strait of Hormuz) have made no progress. On key issues, neither side is willing to make concessions, and the risk of fighting escalating keeps rising.

## 4. The Dollar Strengthens Its Hegemony by Trading on Energy Leverage—Is the “Petrodollar” System Secure?

The U.S. Treasury Secretary is pushing currency swaps with countries such as the United Arab Emirates, saying this will strengthen the dollar’s dominance and curb other payment systems. Because the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, many countries across Eurasia are turning to the United States to buy oil. This requires holding more dollars—some even sell gold to obtain dollars and use dollar foreign-exchange reserves to buy oil—passively supporting the “petrodollar” system.

Even if the U.S.-Iran conflict ends, it will take 3 - 12 months for oil and natural gas along the Strait of Hormuz to recover. During this period, the dollar’s position in oil trading will be further reinforced. The U.S. can use this to advance a “weak dollar but strong dollar” strategy, allowing the dollar to devalue and effectively “flood the market” without worry.

At its core, this localized conflict is about reshaping the global energy landscape and transportation chains—and about a deeply intertwined financial game built on that binding.