I notice that despite the Middle East conflict, the market is reacting quite interestingly. In Monday's early trading, crypto coin stocks are recovering from the weekend's shock, while American equity indices remain surprisingly resilient. The Nasdaq has only fallen by 0.1%, even though overnight futures indicated more losses. Both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones are slightly higher with minor losses.

Bitcoin is now at $77,820, down 0.26% over the past 24 hours. Ether is down 0.53%, and similar pressure is seen on Solana XRP, which has declined by 1.27% and 0.84%, respectively. However, crypto-related coin stocks are showing more interesting movements — Circle has increased by 12%, MicroStrategy by 6%, and Galaxy Digital by 4.7%.

From a macro perspective, what’s truly fascinating is that the ISM Manufacturing PMI has reached 52.4. This marks the first consecutive month of expansion since the end of 2022. Earlier, on Friday, the Chicago Business Barometer hit 57.7, well above expectations. This strong manufacturing growth has been seen for the second time since November 2023 and reflects the strongest momentum since May 2022.

This positive economic signal amid geopolitical tensions is significant. Oil prices have risen, unexpected high PPI data has been released, yet the market is understanding that production activity is accelerating again. In this context, the Federal Reserve’s decision on March 18 is unlikely to be to cut rates. The market has now almost priced out a rate cut for March.