I just checked the on-chain data of Bitcoin and something interesting is happening. Most addresses are currently in profit, with about 11.1 million BTC trading above their average cost compared to 8.9 million in loss. This is quite healthy for BTC dominance, but it also shows that we are not yet at those extreme euphoria levels that precede all-time highs.

What catches my attention is that when you see this balance between gains and losses, you can quite accurately anticipate what will happen. If the gap widens too quickly, it’s a sign that profit-taking is coming. But when they converge, that’s where strong buyers step in. With the MVRV at 2.5 and miners comfortably in profit, the market has legs to keep moving forward.

To trade, I combine this data with macro factors and technical levels. If you see limited selling pressure (few BTC in loss) but external conditions deteriorate, it’s time to take partial profits. Conversely, when fear dominates and most are red, those are the points where it’s worth accumulating. The key is not to get carried away by the noise.