I just noticed something quite interesting — top investors are silently preparing for the worst-case scenarios. Not out of panic, but a form of strategic caution.

It seems the Strait of Hormuz is becoming the biggest flashpoint. Every day, about one-fifth of global crude oil passes through here. Today, almost no oil tankers dare to cross. Warnings from military advisors, successive attacks, war insurance premiums soaring to unbearable levels — in reality, the strait has been closed, although not officially by law.

What will happen when oil flows are cut off? Goldman Sachs forecasts Brent prices will quickly surpass $100 per barrel. This is not an emotional prediction, but simple math — missing 20 million barrels daily, prices cannot help but rise.

And when energy prices increase, inflation will flare up again. Central banks will be divided between fighting inflation and maintaining growth. The liquidity environment will become more complex. This has never been a positive sign for any risky assets.

Speaking of financial preparedness, Ray Dalio from Bridgewater Associates has a nearly classic view — gold should not be evaluated based on daily price fluctuations. Its value lies in its low correlation with most other assets. During market panic, it tends to remain solid. It is a truly diversification tool.

As for Bitcoin, it’s more complicated. In the early stages of conflict, it often behaves more like high-volatility tech stocks than gold. When global risk appetite drops sharply, investors tend to sell off the most volatile assets first. Oxford Economics forecasts the global stock market could adjust downward by 15-20% if the conflict lasts more than two months. Bitcoin will follow suit.

But what if the conflict escalates into a full-scale world war? At that point, asset valuation logic will fundamentally change. Real assets — land, agricultural products, energy, lithium, cobalt, rare earth elements — will be revalued. Because war first depletes resources, then capital. Control over real assets will become the key.

Regarding Warren Buffett, he once warned against selling stocks or hoarding cash during wartime. But he also emphasized one almost certain point — the value of currency will decline in any major war. That’s why you don’t want to hold cash during wartime.

J.P. Morgan has revised its forecast. The probability of a global recession has risen to over 35%. Their advice is very specific — increase cash holdings, shorten bond maturities, prepare some defensive positions.

The waters at the Strait of Hormuz are still churning. But what has happened is already done. Investors are no longer discussing “bull or bear markets” — they are preparing for scenarios they previously only considered hypothetical. That is a real psychological shift.