I just noticed something interesting from the Bitcoin technical analysis. The curved floor pattern that is appearing now looks very similar to the formation that occurred in 2023, right before a 130% rally happened last year. But what makes it different is that current market conditions are far more complex than back then.

So here’s what’s happening: Bitcoin has been stuck in an extreme high-risk zone for 25 consecutive days— the longest record since tracking began. Historically, patterns like this curved floor usually precede market capitulation before a strong bullish phase starts. This theory is supported by on-chain data showing BTC’s price interactions with the supply held by various investor groups.

However, the problem here is that traders’ positioning is not aligned with the potential for a rapid upside move. Demand over the past 30 days has fluctuated between positive and negative. Selling pressure has eased, but there hasn’t been consistent buying to take its place. So this curved floor pattern that’s showing up may be nothing more than a long consolidation, not a true bottom signal.

ETF dynamics also add to the concern. ETF emas is outperforming the inflows of ETF Bitcoin spot over the last 90 days. Bitcoin funds are recording negative inflows. This means investors are still risk-averse and prefer traditional assets over crypto.

On top of that, there’s the macro factor. Overall PCE keseluruhan is still around 2.9% year-over-year, with the core at 3.0%. This means liquidity is still limited, and expansion driven by monetary easing will not happen anytime soon. So the curved floor pattern that is usually followed by a strong rally might be different this time.

Short-term projections suggest Bitcoin could attempt to push into the 70,000-80,000 dollar zone. The current price of 77,890 dollars is already within that range. But some experienced analysts warn that such moves could face selling pressure again in an environment where liquidity is still bearish.

What to pay attention to: the curved floor pattern is indeed an important indicator, but this time it needs to be verified with external demand signals such as ETF flows and macro liquidity conditions. If these two factors don’t align, the rally emerging from this pattern could end up being only volatile and shallow.

Keep monitoring the support level at 45,000 as a critical checkpoint. If it breaks, the historical floors at 30,000 and 16,000 could become downside targets. Conversely, if this curved floor really is forming a bottom, then the upward move may be slower but more sustainable than in previous cycles.

Overall, the curved floor pattern is an important data point, but not a guarantee. The market right now is more nuanced—on-chain signals need to be confirmed by macro conditions and broader risk sentiment. If liquidity doesn’t expand and inflation stays high, even bullish patterns can move with limited momentum.