Raoul Pal has just shared an interesting perspective on the macroeconomic landscape and its implications for the cryptocurrency market. While many people are discouraged and technical purists say it's the end, he disagrees and brings some data worth analyzing.

The starting point is global liquidity. Since 2012, it has maintained a 90% correlation with BTC (which is around $77.96K now) and 97% with the NDX. It's no coincidence. Liquidity grows about 10% annually and shows no signs of slowing down. The GMI Financial Conditions, which anticipates liquidity six months ahead, still remains loose. This is relevant because during the U.S. shutdown, liquidity was contained, creating a downward trend period, but it has started to accelerate since the three-month low.

There’s more happening behind the scenes. Tax refunds are entering banks’ balance sheets, increasing the propensity to create credit. The eSLR, the mechanism through which banks expand liquidity via credit and government bond absorption, is also on the rise. All of this points to more circulating liquidity.

On the regulatory and policy front, the approval of the CLARITY law should boost significant capital flow. Many banks and asset managers want to enter this space, and the law removes this obstacle. Stablecoins are accelerating, with issuance growing 50% last year and trading volume already reaching trillions of dollars. Government support for cryptocurrencies has hit its all-time peak.

Now, the market itself is in a panic. According to most indicators, it’s at its most overbought level in history. The weekly DeMark will provide solid support in two weeks (is now officially available on TradingView), and the daily DeMark is also in overbought territory. Any weakness from here would complete these indicators, signaling potential for a full trend reversal.

The business cycle is accelerating, and this is a key factor for returns and risks. U.S. interest rates are expected to fall even further, increasing disposable income and reducing risk aversion. The biggest risk now is oil prices remaining at high levels.

Raoul points out that the next two weeks are critical to watch. Considering all these aligned macroeconomic factors, he believes the market has the potential for a significant recovery. It’s worth paying attention.