I was monitoring the tensions between the US and Iran at the end of February, and it's interesting to see how the market tries to assess the probability of this kind of conflict in real time.

Basically, the situation became quite tense during that period. Trump made it clear he was unhappy with the negotiations, mainly because Iran continued enriching uranium. The Americans wanted to hear a specific phrase that never came: "There will be no nuclear weapons." Plain and simple.

What caught attention was the military movement. The US Ford aircraft carrier had already arrived in Israel, signaling that things were getting serious. But Trump also said something interesting afterward: he preferred to resolve everything peacefully, which was a very important decision and not easy. Like that moment when you feel you can go either way.

On the Iranian side, they claimed that negotiations were limited only to the uranium issue and that they would not give up their legitimate rights. The Iranian armed forces were even more direct, saying they would respond with "destructive" actions if the US did anything aggressive.

The predictive market Polymarket was trying to quantify the probability of this situation. At the time, the chance of an American attack before March 31 was 69%, while the probability of action before the end of February was much lower, around 19%. Basically, the market was betting that, if there was action, it would be more likely in the early days of March than in the last days of February.

It was one of those moments where geopolitics and predictive markets intersect. Interesting to see how people try to quantify geopolitical risks when everything can change with a statement or declaration.