Looking back at that crash, you can really see how fragile market predictions are. Do you remember October 2025, when Bitcoin suddenly dropped from its $100k peak? It fell close to $87,860 in just a few minutes, a rapid 10% plunge. Back then, it was truly chaotic.

The liquidation scale at that time was insane. Over $19 billion in positions were wiped out at once, and $500 billion disappeared from the entire market. The impact of Bitcoin's crash wasn't limited to just Bitcoin; it also dragged down the entire altcoin market.

But you know, what I find most interesting personally is how clearly this crash exposed the overconfidence of experts' predictions. Fidelity’s Timmer, Blockstream’s backing, MicroStrategy’s Saylor—all of them had more bullish outlooks. They were wrong. That’s just how markets are, but when so many big players miss in the same direction, I think it reveals a common blind spot in the industry’s perspective.

Only a few, like Mike Novogratz and Standard Chartered, were able to adapt their forecasts flexibly. The difference in their judgment significantly influenced how they responded afterward.

Looking at the whole year, Bitcoin dropped over 30% from its peak, ending the year in the red for the first time since 2022. The difficulty in predicting Bitcoin crashes lies in how to deal with such unexpected fluctuations. The market is still constantly trying to forecast, but we must not forget the lessons from that time.