I saw today how crypto took another hit. Bitcoin is currently trading around 78K, but that's better than it was. Ethereum holds at 2.32K, Solana dropped 1.27%, XRP minus 0.77%. Nothing catastrophic at first glance, but when you start calculating, that's roughly 87 billion dollars evaporated in a day. The market is clearly nervous.

The main rule: when Bitcoin falls, altcoins don't just fall along with it. They fall faster and harder. Today, this is especially evident. Cardano lost 1.70%, Dogecoin 0.16%, even BNB, which usually holds the strongest, dropped 0.38%. This is a classic pattern. When investors get scared, money first rushes into Bitcoin, then completely exits crypto. Everything else is sold off first.

The reasons are clear: economic signals remain contradictory. The Fed is in a trap — it can't lower rates due to inflation, but raising them further is risky for employment. When the central bank gets stuck, investors start avoiding risky assets. Crypto looks extremely speculative. The fear and greed index has fallen to a level indicating serious fear in the market. The correlation with the S&P 500 is above 72%, meaning: crypto is trading not based on its fundamentals, but on overall economic anxiety.

Everyone is watching the 68K level for Bitcoin. If it holds, the market could stabilize and move sideways until the Fed meeting on March 18. If it breaks below, the next target zone is 65K, and altcoins will fall even more proportionally. For Ethereum, the critical level is 2K. Closing below this mark will add panic.

What could change the situation? Three things. First, the Fed's decision on rates — any hint of a quick rate cut will bring capital back into risky assets. Second, the CLARITY law in April will give institutional investors the regulatory clarity they’ve been waiting for. Third, a change in Fed leadership in May could reorient monetary policy toward crypto. None of this will happen yet; the market is standing still during the storm.

The fear and greed index remains low, and at such levels of fear, a downtrend usually persists until something significant happens. Bitcoin will determine the direction, and altcoins will amplify it. Right now, the direction is down. We’ll see what the Fed says.