If quantum computers break through Bitcoin, could it trigger a $145 billion sell-off pressure? Analysts: The market can withstand it.

Quantum computing technology poses a threat to Bitcoin. Experts say that the 1.7 million Bitcoins from the Satoshi era carry potential risks—even if $145 billion in assets could be stolen and dumped.

As quantum computing technology advances by leaps and bounds, panic in the crypto community has been rekindled: Can quantum computers crack Bitcoin? If all the ancient wallets from the “Satoshi era” are compromised, could a potential sell-off of up to 1.7 million Bitcoins—worth $145 billion—cause the cryptocurrency market to collapse instantly?

The threat of quantum computing is real and not unfounded. Bitcoin analyst James Check noted that, in theory, as long as quantum computers have enough processing power, they could brute-force crack Bitcoin’s “elliptic curve signatures,” then break into wallets that have already exposed their “public keys,” with the earliest wallets from the “Satoshi era” being the first to be targeted.

In response, quantum doomsayers warn that once the defenses of these ancient “whales” are torn apart, a massive amount of Bitcoin would rush into the market, triggering an epic crash. However, if we stay calm and do the math, the data points to a very different outcome.

At present, about 1.7 million Bitcoins are stored in early addresses that are vulnerable to quantum attacks. Based on the current price, the potential selling pressure could be as high as $145 billion. That sounds like a nuclear-level market bearish shock, but in practical trading terms, this figure is well within the crypto market’s ability to absorb it.

Image source: Lookonchain

Looking at historical data, during the frenzy of bull markets, long-term holders (investors who hold Bitcoin for at least 155 days) sell an average of 10,000 to 30,000 Bitcoins per day. At that pace, even if all 1.7 million Bitcoins from the Satoshi era were to pour out, it would only be equivalent to the typical profit-taking volume of two to three months for the market.

Looking back at the most recent bear market, in just one quarter, more than 2.3 million Bitcoins changed hands among investors. That scale had already surpassed the “total potential attack targets” of quantum computers, yet the market did not experience a systemic collapse at the time.

Image source: Lookonchain

Ancient whales can’t cause a tsunami

In addition, monthly Bitcoin inflows to exchanges are nearly 850,000 BTC. Meanwhile, in the derivatives market, the nominal trading volume generated every few days is already enough to offset this entire batch of Satoshi-era Bitcoins. In other words, while $145 billion is indeed an astronomical number when viewed on its own, when placed against Bitcoin’s existing liquidity and turnover, it’s actually rather ordinary.

Of course, James Check also acknowledged that if this massive selling pressure were to erupt in a concentrated burst in the short term, it would inevitably cause intense market fluctuations—and could even lead to a prolonged period of low performance. But that assumption is based on the premise that “hackers have no economic common sense.”

He explained that any hacker with such advanced skills who could crack and steal this fortune would never choose to “dump it all at once” and damage their own position. To maximize profits, they would inevitably adopt a slow, phased offloading strategy, and even carry out hedging operations through derivatives to significantly reduce profit loss caused by slippage.

The real test isn’t selling pressure—it’s “governance”

Historical experience shows that the Bitcoin market has enough resilience to absorb this scale of selling pressure smoothly within a few months (not years). Therefore, when facing a quantum threat, the real challenge has never been purely mechanical selling pressure—it is “governance.”

Image source: Lookonchain

When the day truly approaches, how should the Bitcoin community and developers respond? Rather than worrying about a market crash, a bigger point of controversy is whether the Bitcoin network should activate a mechanism similar to BIP-361 to forcibly “freeze” these threatened early addresses. Or should it stick to Bitcoin’s spirit of “decentralization and resistance to censorship,” letting market mechanisms resolve everything naturally? This is the ultimate question that a quantum crisis poses to the entire crypto industry.

• This article is reprinted with permission from: 《Blockcast》
• Original title: 《Can a Quantum Computer Break Bitcoin and “Trigger a $145 Billion Sell Pressure”? Analysis: Can the Market Withstand It?》
• Original author: Block Sister MEL