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Bitcoin is currently in a very interesting situation. The price is running 20-25% below miners' production costs — meaning miners are incurring losses. I observed significant tension in the chain data. NUPL has dropped close to 0.2, indicating a historic fear level. Additionally, the hashprice is suppressed around $30-32 per PH/s/day.
But at the same time, some bullish signals are also emerging. The Inter-exchange Flow Pulse has formed a golden cross above its 90-day average. Whenever this pattern appeared in early 2016, 2019, and 2023, a rally followed. Stablecoin liquidity is also increasing — USDC supply has grown by 9.34% over 30 days. This suggests that large investors are starting to buy at this level.
Bitcoin is also being withdrawn from OTC desks, indicating institutional holdings. There is also some easing in miner selling pressure. So in summary — yes, there is tension, but clear signs of market redistribution as well. This looks like an accumulation phase.