Seeing this Bitcoin surge, I understand why the market is so sensitive to monetary policy. I want to think a little more about what happened last month.

At the beginning of January, Bitcoin dropped below $60K. There was fear in the market at that time. But within just a few weeks, everything changed. Since the CPI data was released, this rollercoaster began. Inflation was lower than expected. That means the Fed might cut interest rates. To see how the market views this possibility, look at the prediction markets — the chance of a cut in April jumped from 35% to 68%. That’s the main source of Bitcoin’s strength. When expectations about monetary policy change, the market reacts accordingly.

$70K This level is actually a psychological barrier. Breaking this level means market sentiment has truly shifted. Trading volume has increased, and buying pressure is visible on major exchanges. Experts say this recovery is probably faster than previous cycles because the market is now more mature. Institutional investors are now in this market.

But one important point — what if the expectation of rate cuts changes? If inflation rises again or other economic data turn out bad, the Fed might change its plans. In that case, the market will follow suit. Geopolitical tensions or regulatory changes could also come at any time.

From a global perspective, the policies of the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan are also important. Bitcoin is an unlimited asset, so it is influenced by the economic conditions of all countries. If the dollar weakens or liquidity increases in other currencies, that’s positive for Bitcoin.

From a technical standpoint, momentum indicators are signaling bullish. The fear and greed index has moved from extreme fear to neutral territory. Small investors are becoming optimistic again. Positions in the derivatives market are being restructured, indicating bullish expectations.

This whole event shows that Bitcoin is no longer just a technological asset; it’s linked to macroeconomic fundamentals. When the opportunity to hold income-less assets decreases, Bitcoin seems valuable. Easy monetary policy weakens the dollar, which is good for Bitcoin. All these reasons make monetary policy the main driver of its strength.

But risks will always remain. Investors need to keep these uncertainties in mind. Diversifying the portfolio is essential. Upcoming economic data releases should be watched carefully. The market’s direction can change at any time.