I just noticed something interesting in the on-chain Bitcoin data this week. It turns out that the supply activity from long-term holders (LTH) is increasing significantly, and this is usually an important signal that a major move might be coming.

So the story is, when LTHs start actively distributing their holdings, it means they are setting up for the next phase. According to observations from several analysts, this pattern often appears before the market experiences a downturn in volatility. Just look at last week's weekly market example, where the BTC price dropped from around 95,000 to nearly 60,000, even though LTH supply activity remained high. That indicates this decline might still continue.

What's interesting is, despite a bounce to certain levels, the market structure still shows bearish characteristics. The range of 60,000 to 62,000 is seen as a liquidity zone, not a strong support. So the downside potential remains wide open for the endgame this year.

Currently, BTC is at the 77.80K level with a 0.25% decrease in a day. Given the still bearish on-chain pattern, any rally in the coming weeks might just be a liquidity illusion within a larger distribution. So it's worth keeping an eye on this LTH activity momentum.