I just looked at JPMorgan's market analysis, and there are some interesting things. Bitcoin futures are currently clearly oversold — trading far below the 20-day moving average. At the same time, open interest has fallen by 15%, and trading volumes have decreased by 22% since the end of last year. Speculators are clearly fleeing.

All of this is happening against the backdrop of capital massively flowing into gold and silver. Gold ETFs attracted $8.7 billion in the fourth quarter, silver ETFs — $2.3 billion. This is a 47% and 38% increase, respectively. Geopolitical tensions, inflation fears, central bank purchases — all of these support demand for traditional assets.

An interesting point: gold shows a volatility of 12% over 60 days, while Bitcoin’s is 68%. Investors monitoring risks are evidently choosing stability. Institutional investors started this shift back in August 2024, reducing crypto positions by 23%. Retail investors followed with a slight delay — sales increased by 34% by the end of the year.

This is already the third such rotation period since 2017, but this time macro conditions are completely different. Central banks are still in inflation control mode, and the regulatory environment for crypto remains unstable. Technically — if Bitcoin doesn’t rise back above the 200-day moving average, this trend could last longer than the previous nine months. Gold has maintained its best position relative to Bitcoin since 2020.