The market on the day that war broke out was truly chaotic. Wall Street on Tuesday experienced another hellish day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 403 points, the S&P 500 dropped 0.94%, and the Nasdaq declined by 1.02%. Looking at the numbers alone, it might not seem like a big deal, but during actual trading, it was a different story.

At the worst moment during trading, the Dow briefly plummeted by over 1,200 points. The S&P 500 fell by 2.5%, and the Nasdaq index dropped by 2.7%. This was the worst sell-off since early February. The market was nervous, with large-scale sell-offs triggered by even minor movements.

And the energy market became completely uncontrollable. Oil prices surged by 8% after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. WTI crude oil rose by $5.82 to $77.05 per barrel, and Brent crude increased by $6.09 to $83.83 per barrel. This is more than a $17 increase from last Friday’s $66, marking a new high driven by investor panic.

The VIX volatility index skyrocketed to 25.16. This indicates that the market expects the stock market to be highly volatile over the next 30 days. When the VIX exceeds 25, it is considered the "panic" zone. Even more frightening is Trump’s warning that "this conflict could last for four weeks." This is much longer than the market’s initial expectation of a "resolution within a few days."

However, the most surprising story today is this. Amid the sharp decline in US stocks, the collapse of gold, and the surge in the VIX, Bitcoin demonstrated astonishing strength.

Currently, BTC is trading around 77.61K, with a market share of 57.077%. Ethereum is also stable around 2.31K. The global total market value of cryptocurrencies remains solid. This movement completely overturns previous perceptions. In the past, geopolitical crises caused Bitcoin to plunge along with technology stocks, but this time, it’s different.

Why is it so resilient? Several key factors are supporting the crypto market. First, the narrative of Bitcoin as "digital gold" is resurging. Traditional gold is affected by the strength or weakness of the dollar, but Bitcoin is a true "borderless currency" that does not depend on any single fiat currency. As instability in the Middle East and the narrative of dollar devaluation accelerate, this characteristic is being reevaluated.

On-chain data shows that wallets holding Bitcoin for over 365 days (long-term holders) have almost finished selling. In early February, there was a sell-off of 243,737 BTC, but by March 1, it had sharply decreased to 31,967 BTC, an 87% reduction. Panic selling has ended, and the market appears to be bottoming out.

Selling pressure from Bitcoin miners has also significantly eased. On February 8, there was a net sell-off of 4,718 BTC, but by March 1, it had decreased to 837 BTC. Large investors are quietly accumulating. Between February 19 and 20, super whales holding large amounts of BTC added about 14,000 BTC, indicating smart money is contrarian buying.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is range-bound between $65,000 and $68,000. The $65,000 level is a key support; falling below it could see prices drop to $64,600 or even $64,000. Conversely, breaking above $68,000 could trigger FOMO, with $70,000 serving as a psychological milestone.

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee predicts, "The worst sell-off will end this week, and March will be a month of gains." Historical data supports this view, showing that after major geopolitical conflicts, the S&P 500 typically recovers within two weeks.

By the way, the reasons behind the crash of altcoins like Solana are also worth noting. Solana is highly susceptible to overall market volatility and has a strong risk asset profile. As anxiety from the war spreads, funds tend to concentrate into large-cap assets like Bitcoin, while mid-tier coins like Solana face selling pressure.

Ultimately, the market is focused on one question: how long will the war last? If it lasts four weeks, crude oil prices could surpass $100, inflation could become uncontrollable, and the stock market could decline further. If it lasts only a few days, oil prices might fall, easing inflation and allowing the market to recover.

The fear index is at 10, long-term holders have stopped selling, large holders are quietly accumulating, and all historical data points to the same conclusion. The bottoming process is underway. The only exception is cryptocurrencies, which, amid the backdrop of stock market crashes and gold collapses, are showing remarkable resilience. This signals that the crypto market is evolving from a "pure risk asset" into an "alternative safe haven." The answer will become clear within the next few days.